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Random Thoughts


Knowing when to rely on those sorta nuances is the art to the science of trading.

  • Is it a coincidence that Mercury Retrograde will abate just as Succo and I square off in Vail? I think not...

  • Minyan Emm, What have we learned from these latest events? Simple....NO RULES!

  • As traders squared and pared their leftover option overage, a slew of this morning's dew was likely a function of residual July option exposure. Still, pure trader eyes are thus far supportive off this green giggle. Market internals find four winners for each loser, the financials (BKX and XBD) are holding their bid, heck--even the semis are up 1.6%, proof positive that even a broken clock is right twice a day.

  • Concerns? Well, S&P 1260 is a stone's throw away, and that's an area of technical contention for those who follow such a thing. Additionally, the dollar continues to hold its bid which, as we know, has been a headwind in the "dollar devaluation vs. asset class deflation" discussion. And, while rotation station is in full force, my sense is that commodities and equities will reconcile their disparate ways in short order. In that regard, CRB 330-335 is something we should all keep tabs on.

  • As the XAU challenged--and thus far held--its 200-day moving average, Professor McGuirk must be gearing up for MIM3!

  • DRG 335-340 is a zone that has contained big pharma since the Spring of 2004. Keep an eye on those puppies as money continues to rotate to safety and the promises they hold. (Thanks for the eyes Bennet.)

  • With swings like this, they should be volatility traders!

  • I finally saw Munich on pay-per-view this weekend and I"m glad I waited. The recent conflict in the Middle East provides a relative context for the film.

  • We've long opined that that the disconnect between perception and reality would manifest via higher volatility. That continues to be the case and, for those funds mired in compression (increasing the size of their bets and to make up for smaller aggregate movements), they're learning a valuable real-time lesson. How do you assimilate this into your trading approach? Smaller size, for one, and wider "scales" (for deux).

  • They fought the Law and the Law won.

  • "Is this the end for our bearish friend? NDX and RUT our outperformers in the early going, and as our barometers for risk that suggests the initial green on the screen is driven by an appetite for risk. But what about underneath? Through the bottom of the hour new PnF sell signals were actually leading new buy signals 7 to 3." Pepe Depew on today's Buzz.

  • Consistent with my opening vibes, I've dusted off some buy tickets in the metal space as we edge towards CRB 330-335. Nothing crazy, just staying true to my course and consistent with my voice.

  • Typically, following a series of supply driven sessions, we would expect a probe (lower) early in the day. Given expiration and the geopolitical posturing, we didn't get it this morning. Knowing when to rely on those sorta nuances is the art to the science of trading.

  • Note Google as it gurgles eight points lower. It "feels" like the insider window (for sales) has opened anew.

  • Hey, there's nothing wrong with a little pizza on our time!

  • R.P.
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Position in metal equities, financials
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