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Early Thoughts


Economic Influence: Weekly Unemployment claims to be released at 8:30am and are expected to be 415k, up from last weeks 412k. The number shouldn't be market moving because there are some seasonal tendencies due to Auto plants shutting down to retool for next model year.

Earnings Influence: Earnings continue to show mixed results, but clearly have a better tone. When the reports are coupled with general corporate guidance, the tone is still, well...better but mixed. Clearly, there are signs of improvement, but market participants believe most of the good news is already discounted in stocks.

Other Influences and Thoughts: The absence of broad unexpected earnings news (good or bad) has left the market wondering what to look for as a potential catalyst. Bonds get killed over recent weeks, yet the market doesn't break. Earnings and conference call commentary are OK, but the market doesn't rally. Yesterday, the Dollar gets hit and stocks yawn.

Traders are groping for a reason to act and coming up the newest "buzz"- the rotation du jour. Lately the rotation has been focused on movement in the economically sensitive arena and there are no signs of it abating.
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