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Random Thoughts on a Freaky Friday


Good luck today Minyans!


  • "Many of the particulars of Thailand's problems in 1997 echoed those of Mexico in 1994. The country had a big current account deficit---its imports greatly exceed its exports. Thailand was financing this current account deficit with a lot of short-term borrowing, which was then lent by Thai banks and finance companies for long-term projects, including an unsustainable real estate boom. The Thai baht was tied to the U.S. dollar. The dollar had begun to rise in value on the world market in 1995, and as that continued, the baht became more and more overvalued, worsening the current account deficit. Eventually investors became unwilling to continue financing it." --Robert Rubin, In an Uncertain World.

  • Did you wear Wranglers?

  • AMG Data for the week ended 7/14 reported net inflows into equity funds of $874 mln; 53% to non-domestic funds; Taxable bonds funds reported net inflows of $6 mln; HY inflows of $197 mln; Money market fund inflows of $11.2 bln

  • The September 11 commission brought back a lot of dark and buried emotions. While nobody wants to "go back there," so to speak, it's important that the significance of what has been "uncovered" registers in our collective mindset.

  • I am penning these Randoms from home before heading to a family commitment. As luck would have it, most of my systems are "down" and I don't have access to much of my usual information.

  • I still think it's noice that the Neville brothers wore a Hoofy and Boo tee at their latest gig.

  • Microsoft Corp (MSFT:NASD) failed to impress the Street, missing by a penny vs. First Call estimates while beating on the top line. The world's largest software company also guided Q1 EPS lower to $0.25 vs. $0.32 cons. The lower guidance is partially a function of lower expected investment income after the decision to deploy cash to shareholders in the form of a $75 bln dividend payout.

  • How did the cat get in the bag?

  • The reverse dandruff crowd (S&P) is still looking for the bungee.

  • There is validity to the notion that technical analysis is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

  • The Minyanville Dictionary.

  • Succo, myself and Minyan Warren Bachman were walking down 57th Street last night when we ran into Joe Willie Namath. We chatted with Broadway Joe for about 15 minutes and listened to a few "old school" stories (Bob Lilly, Super Bowl III, etc.). I was struck by how engaging he was and by the time we said our goodbyes, he had critters in his hand and Minyans on his mind. Wasabi!

  • Be good to others and better to yourself.

  • The market is "easy"'s just the crowded trading community, government prodding and corporate posturing that makes the environment hard.

  • The Minx had (has) a better chance of rallying with a 'bad' Microsoft than a 'good' Microsoft.

  • We've got a good bunch here.

  • Margarita Mama says to take your vitamins (she also says hi!).

  • Only a few more weeks until Minyans in the Mountains. There's a reason I keep bringing this up and it's not because I'm trying to "sell" you. I firmly believe that everyone who joins the Minyan family in Crested Butte will walk away much wealthier, and that's independent of money. Come play, learn, network and smile--it's something that you will remember for a very long time.

  • I peeked at the eBay (EBAY:NASD) chart after the close yesterday and kicked myself for not looking earlier. The stock gapped lower from an oversold basis, tested the 200-day (thereabouts) and then dutifully filled the upside gap (to close flat). That's textbook technical stuff.

  • I've learned over the last four years to read every word that the Iron Horse writes.

  • They have names. Miles...and Maisy.

  • I was working in a large hedge fund in the late nineties and walked into the morning meeting talking about Russia. My thought was shot down by a senior partner. "Russia doesn't matter!" You know what? It mattered...

  • We must understand that PLENTY of room remains below but respect the fact that sharp Snappers are possible. That's why I've tightened up my risk parameters (trailing stops on trading positions) and eye my "tells" so closely. When the ducks quack in unison, I open up my stance and take bigger cuts.

  • Option accounting is the Imelda Marcos of shoes that will fall.

  • The dollar index is putting some distance between itself and DXY 88. Not coincidently, the metals continue to fall apart. Gold has now broken the 50-day and testing $390. White lightening, for its part, is back at another important support zone (silver $6.18-25).

  • Good luck today and, more importantly, have a fantastic weekend.

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