The Dough Nation
By Todd Harrison Jul 23, 2003 2:15 pm
Spill the beans already, Toddo!
Inflation: A persistent increase in the level of consumer prices or a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money, caused by an increase in available currency and credit beyond the proportion of available goods and services.
Deflation: A persistent decrease in the level of consumer prices or a persistent increase in the purchasing power of money because of a reduction in available currency and credit
Stagflation: Sluggish economic growth coupled with a high rate of inflation and unemployment.
Source: The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition
The afternoon continues to trudge and budge with each upside try being (thus far) met with supply. The tone isn't bad, per se, and while there seems to be offers in the futures (on each attempted lift), Snapper is giving it his best college try. If he's to strut his stuff, he'll have to battle the alligators in our midst ...beware of the craw!
The constructive elements continue to center on the semicaps, biotechs, emerging brokers and internet space. Those are typically leadership sectors and if the tape spurts higher, those should be the horses to the market's cart. Meanwhile, the macro guides are moving in opposite direction as gold musters some luster and the greenback is getting smacked.
Behind the scenes, I've been discussing the merits of our great nation with Monsieur Fleck, Professor Succo, Brian Reynolds and Tony "hair" Dwyer. I've been sitting in the sleep-away deflation camp for a few years now but Succo made a compelling case for the stagflation migration. If you haven't picked up on it by now, John is as sharp a guy as you'll find in the street and his opinions warrant discussion.
Why I have a thought deflation was the path of least resistance? The scarcity of money, for one, as well as a lack of pricing power in corporate America. Elmer has made it crystal clear, however, that he'll print as much money as necessary for as long as necessary. That will likely weigh on the dollar (and open up an entirely new can of worms) but it also shifts the underlying dynamic.
I wanted to put this "out there" for discussion among the professorship as I respect their opinions greatly. In the meantime, it's trading is as trading does, Forrest, and the games are starting to pick up. The longer the Minx holds our levels, the more emboldened traders will become. As I write, I'm seeing some shorties cover up and move to the sidelines.
Electronic Arts (ERTS:NASD), Qualcomm (QCOM:NASD). American International Group (AIG:NYSE), AT&T (T:NYSE), Biogen (BGEN:NASD) and Eli Lilly (LLY:NASD) highlight an extremely active overnight earning's session so understand that the ping will continue to pong. Active traders, monitor yesterday's highs (S&P 990, NDX 1265) as the uber-short term resistance as we wade through today's contra-hour.
Finally, in Minyanville news, the HUGO announcement is coming any day now and yes, it has to do with November 12. I assure you that it'll be worth the wait and it'll merge the best efforts of everything Minyanville stands for. I, for one, am ing)" target=_blank>schvitzing with excitement as I anxiously await breaking the news!
Good luck into the close.
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