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Random Thoughts




  • Da! Da! Nyet! Nyet!

  • Succo and I had our weekly mindmeld last night and discussed how derivatives are the backbone of a successful trading operation. A defined risk profile should be the skeletal structure with fundamental and technical applications layered upon the bones.

  • Is anyone else disturbed by the fact that the September 11 commission said congressional oversight is dysfunctional?

  • Volume flows were strong yesterday. That's bearish on the margin.

  • Living well is the best revenge. And it has nothing to do with money.

  • Bret Fahvera...?

  • A blurb from Lehman's aptly named and uber-talented technician Jeff DeGraff: "The initial move in futures Tuesday gapped the market higher than Monday's high, yet by day's end the markets closed below Monday's low. That qualifies as an outside day, a condition that generally suggests too much supply exists in the market place. Another anecdotal supportive factor is the news flow. Good news abounds, yet negative volume alerts registered on all major equity indices. Volume levels spiked above average by 19% on the NYSE, and 15% on the NASDAQ, a condition that has become more pronounced, and indicative of distribution."

  • NASDAQ comp has made a new low for the year.

  • Succo touched on an important insight over on the Buzz. A few weeks ago, he wrote about how investors were starved for performance and doing "stupid things" such as selling Johnny John (JNJ:NYSE) July 60 calls for a quarter. He bought those uber-cheap calls and--after the stock popped a bit--sold stock against them on a delta neutral basis. Thus, as the stock cratered, he became short the name and participated on the downside.

  • Poor Pats.

  • Selling 25 cent options to open allows you to eat like a bird but poop like an elephant.

  • I wish I had the chance to hear Stevie Ray and watch Pistol Pete in person.

  • I will be taking a half day tomorrow as I've gotta family wedding to attend in Block Island. Saddle up, Grandma!

  • I feel naked without a Fed head painting the tape. Where for art thou?

  • Does the 9/11 commission matter? It'll contribute to the crisis of confidence, in my view, but that may take years to evolve.

  • In the years ahead, trust will be commoditized and honesty will trade at a premium.

  • The short-term environment will continue to be haphazard and difficult to game. That's what happens when you try and channel chaos.

  • I think the Fed is scared...and scared people turn to desperate measures.

  • The downside reversal in the trannies has carried over to today's session.

  • Smelly cat! The kitty litter that is Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE) is weighing on the cyclicals.

  • S&P 1080.

  • Balance breeds perspective.

  • When in doubt, sit it out.

  • If you're buying when they're sellin', a cardboard box will be your dwelling. If you're sellin' when they're buyin', you'll be laughin' when they're cryin'.

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