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Random Thoughts


It's easy to get lost in the land of flickering ticks but remember--please--that it could be worse.

  • Are Koi fish shy?

  • Given the lower highs across a spate of mainstay sectors and indices, the benefit of the doubt has to rest with Boo. A push through S&P 1264 or NDX 1510 will be the first sign that something is afoot in Matador City .

  • I've spoken to alotta frustrated fundamental tech bulls. I (humbly) told them that multiple contraction and value traps are the fatal flaw of that analysis.

  • The Russell was down a deuce and tested important support at RUT 670. Pepe has been all over this shrinkage and I wanted to make sure it's on ye radar. How they act (at that level) will likely prove to be a valuable tape tell.

  • Market internals continue to urge caution as we edge towards the end of a rather long week.

  • As we edge over today's hump, my eyes are spying the Russell (670), leadership (banks and brokers), rotation station (consumers), the clock (I'm fried), Pepe (nice shirt!), Citi (it never sleeps), MIM3 (215 Minyans and counting) and YOU. Yeah, Fokker, I'm watching YOU.

  • CRB 330-335 is a VERY important level for commodity land (trendline from 2002 and the 200-day moving average). If we break that zone, expect deflation chatter to get much louder.

  • The reaction to news matters more than the news itself and, in that vein, I'm watching Schlumberger, Nucor, Google and Union Pacific as they had positive things to say.

  • I am seeing a rotation into pharma (safety) and consumer non-durables, along with stealth traction in the money center banks. And I'll say this, if the piggies lose their bid, there's gonna be a whole new level of stress in the city of critters.

  • With T-minus 20 days until Minyans in the Mountains III, we're up to our eyes in the devil that are the details. Please know that if you call the Vail Cascade, they'll tell you that they're SOLD OUT but we have one or two rooms "in house" for those interested. From there, we've made arrangements with neighboring hotels to ensure that interested Minyans will be able to join us.

  • I don't think there can be any doubt on whether I was safe. I mean, look at the video tape, the ball wasn't even in the glove!

  • Lest you didn't see the video of when our president gave the German chancellor a back rub....

  • "Check out the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which has just violated its PnF cyclical bull market trendline dating back to... Anyone? Anyone? March 2003." Pepe Depew on today's Buzz.

  • "As I've said repeatedly, I do not understand how people can be so terrified of the Fed, especially in light of how the economy is shaping up. Given my expectations, I will go out on a limb and say this: Not only will the Fed's next move not be a hike, it will be a cut. I'm not sure when that will happen, but that's how strongly I feel about this Fed and the current economy." Bill Fleckenstein on today's Buzz.

  • Classified Minyans! One of our professors--a snazzy cat if I ever saw one--is looking for office space in midtown Manhattan. If any of ye faithful knows of space available--a small office of three--please let me know. We're a community that looks after our own and I would consider it a personal favor.

  • The XAU, which was trying to snap higher, has been thwarted by the recent slippage in the underlying (gold -$10). Please "see" that the 200-day moving average will come into play at XAU 133.

  • It's been a long week, Minyans, but in less than four hours, we'll be turning it off to focus on the important stuff. It's easy to get lost in the land of flickering ticks but remember--please--that it could be worse. We talk about this a lot and trust me, I know that it goes in some ears and out others. But I speak from experience when I say that it should never take something bad to make us realize we've got it good. Life's too short and before you know it, our experience will morph into memories and our best days will be behind us. Be mindful--be well--and be safe.

  • Fare ye well into the bell and have a great weekend.

  • R.P.
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