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Random Thoughts


My best shot is the 2pm FOMC minutes!

  • As it stands, the current action can be viewed as a consolidation above recent acne levels. A breach of S&P 1220 or BKX 100 will raise some eyebrows.

  • Now you can't leave!

  • "A close friend of my wife and I is in DESPERATE need of a complete liver transplant after suffering an unexpected and unexplained liver failure on Sunday. She needs a liver within the next few days. There is currently a tremendous media campaign to raise awareness in NY to help find her a liver. If anyone knows doctors or others who work in a hospital, please see if they can help spread the word around as well. All help is greatly appreciated." Minyan Matt Jacobs."

  • Market internals, skewed by the nosty fixed income action, has three red for each stock ahead.

  • "I just received an email from the brightest market mind I know. He has been in the business for sixty years and if I mentioned his name most would know it. Here is what he said..."China said it will no longer peg its currency to the U.S. dollar, but instead will let the yuan float in a tight band against a basket of foreign currencies. The yuan has been stregnthened, effective immediately, to a rate of 8.11 yuan to the U.S. dollar, compared to 8.28 it has been set at for more than a decade. The principal effect will be to blunt congress in its anti-China policy on trade. This should help make deals like oil work. This really puts it to the U.S...the peg will widen (to the U.S. dollar as it floats against other currencies) since the peg is to a basket of currencies. That implies that Chinese reserves will no longer be mostly in dollars, but a basket of currencies, hence downward pressure on the dollar vs. EUR, YEN, and probably gold." -- John Succo on the Buzz

  • Cheer up Macke, it could be worse.

  • Vibes from Snoop "I'll see you in Ojai" Tony Dwyer

    • While there is a strong correlation between most economic data series and the S&P 500 over time, we found a very strong correlation and r-squared between Commercial &Industrial (C&I) lending trends and the S&P 500. Since 1979, the two have an r-squared of 0.90. Since 1947, the r-squared is 0.83.

    • We continue to believe the current cycle appears similar to the last C&I lending cycle (1993-2001). Even considering a peak in the SPX can lead the peak in C&I lending, history suggests excess market returns for years to come.

    • Clearly, this study simply states the obvious - that over time, higher economic data series coincides with higher stock prices (imagine that!). Our main point is that historical C&I lending patterns suggest the Commercial and Industrial lending cycle should be in the very early innings. This in turn reinforces our view the same should be true for the S&P 500.

  • I've had several conversations of late with traders who simply wish they had another skill set to fall back on. It's an increasingly familiar discussion and should remain so as a function of overcapacity in the financial arena.

  • The support group for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome in Nelson, New Zealand, announced that it would support in principle the CFS illness-publicizing International Awareness Day even though its members would probably not participate in the commemorative activities because they are often too tired for such things. (Nelson Mail)

  • All kinda resistance resides between $60 and $65 in Aunt Fannie (FNM).

  • "Overall the market finished well, particularly the NASDAQ given the selective high-profile weakness of Yahoo!, Intel and the like. The strong GDP numbers out of China moved material names, yet did not impact Energy names in the same way. We believe that energy stocks and the commodity fail on good-news, not bad, and the weight of over-ownership may prove burdensome for the future. Tactically, the correction of material names was deep enough to scare most weak hands from the market, and looks to us to have the best prospects for bulls interested in playing the cyclical move dependent on China's growth. Materials are just beginning to complete modest bases off of much more dramatic and deeper corrections from the spring. As we mentioned earlier, sector data from Rydex also shows more liquidation of the group during the spring correction than that in Energy." -- Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman fame.

  • It's funny, for a community predicated on metaphorical critters, I think there are more obvious cartoons in the financial media space.

  • Unless he grows three feet and develops an outside shot, the Knicks need more help than this.

  • "I would take issue that stocks are down today because bonds are down. Bonds went down as the news was released that China was revaluing. Stock futures surged until the London bombings. Following that, Greenspan suggested a possible inverted yield curve does not direct Fed policy." At the end of the day, stocks are down because it appears the Fed is not concerned about an inverted curve." -- Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest.

  • Keep the 2:00 EST release of the FOMC minutes on your radar please.

  • Less than a month remains until the Mother of all Minyanfests in Ojai, California! You wanna smile with Succo? Spew with Saut? Snack with Shobin? Sing with Santoli? Hang with Herb? Talk to Tony? Muse with Macke? Run with Reamer? Banter with Bernie? Fly with Fari? YOU GOT IT! Bring the whole family, Minyans, and get ready for a retreat that will forever change the face of finance!

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