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A Real or Random Run?


...random acts are more common and misleading than most of us think.

I just had to turn off the Bloomberg coverage of Bernanke answering ridiculous questions from Congress once again. He was replaced through my speakers by a more understandable Stevie Ray Vaughan, which often helps me pick the ticks more than speeches. Truly. The best in my business that I've ever had the privilege to know and learn from have more in common with the latter than the former. These strange birds have a certain rhythm and ability to notice patterns, even feel them, which is much more musical than congressional.

I couldn't believe my ears when I heard the new agreed upon assumption (with not an energy expert in the room) that $75-80 oil now makes sense for the next several years all of a sudden! Remarkable that this is the only thing I heard the Q'er and the A'er agree on in the entire Q&A. Strangle anyone? That's a trade, not an op-ed.

When the right price is that clear to so many - okay they're not exactly cab drivers but I'm guessin' neither has placed a trade with the NYMEX...when crude futures contracts (or anything else) become so clear to understand to so many - have we been "fooled by randomness?" Could there be a trade or trend or two or three that is held by just the right number of people in random concert that trumps the truth for a brief period of time? Time will tell but five years from now (likely much sooner than that), I can't wait to compare the price chart to this new easy-to-see-agreed-upon price that will be with us for quite a while, or so they say. I'll take the "don't."

I was just pinging with my friend, the wise Prof. Katsenelson about this very topic and one of his favorites. Let's just not be too clear about too much we both agree. Recent rallies comes to mind. What do I mean? Well, for example, last night we're playing a game of Memory with my kids where you lay a bunch of cards face down, each only has one other match. You turn over only two at a time until you find each pair. Never too young to think patterns I've told the bride, at least it's better than a game of face-plants on the bean-bag which the kids were warming up with. So my son, who's never even sat through a full game, mumbles to me (no joke) "Me get them all, dada." His first turn comes (he's only seen six cards mind you from the three other player's turns, and never before remembered any so far as I can tell), but he somehow flips two new ones to make a pair which is grounds for huge cheers from his crew. He proceeds to methodically match every single pair on the board! No help from his crowd of astonished mom and dad, and now crying big sister who didn't get another turn. He is two-years old.

Before considering MIT's card counting club, a front-office position with the Knicks, or at least a few discretionary trades for me……I told Vitaliy and he and I ultimately agreed; random acts are more common and misleading than most of us think. My clue was later the mixture of equal parts spaghetti sauce and milk…in his hair.
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