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Random Thoughts


There sure is alotta angst out there. If you're pressin', please check yourself.

  • The bovine crowd continues to look up with wide-eyed wonderment at S&P 1264. That's the bull's eye and they know how many technical buyers are resting on the other side of that ride. These are the games people play and my sense is that they'll continue to gun for it. The longer they fail to mount that hump, however, the more likely it becomes that they'll turn tail and set sail.

  • Market internals are hangin' 9:5 negative. That, coupled with resistance above, tips the daily scale towards Red Dye although Boo would feel much better if the dollar (-30 bips) was higher.

  • Setting stops removes emotions and, as I peeled out of some JP Morgan puts earlier today, I reminded myself of that fact.

  • There sure is alotta angst out there. If you're pressin', please check yourself.

  • We're pretty much SOLD OUT of Vail Cascade for MIM3. However, we've got some alternative housing arrangements for Minyans still looking to mingle in the mountains. It's 21 days away and--take me at my word--it's gonna knock your socks off!

  • Speaking of which, Succo, after saying nary a word since last summer's bitter softball pill, spoke his first spate of trash talk last night. This year's rubber match is gonna be a scary affair!

  • This is the sorta story that warms you up from the inside out!

  • "Yesterday's market internals were good enough to believe that the 1220 area for the S&P is good support and either the market will have to fail from higher up (resistance at the 1265 and then 1280 levels) or the Fed's going to have to keep its collective mouth closed (the last two times the Fed has said something, June 29 and July 19, the market rocketed intra-day) because it is very unlikely it fails near-term." Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • Personally, I enjoyed listening to yesterday's Q&A as the Senate asked some pertinent and important questions. Nobody wanted to "hear" them during an up 200 day but they're issues that we all must live with and, as such, they're responsibilities that we all must accept.

  • Waiting thirty minutes after the opening (following emotional days) is a little trick I picked up through the years. It doesn't always "work" but it generally allows for a truer tone to emerge.

  • I've said it before and I'll say it again--if you're not reading Pepe's 5 Things, you're missing some of the best content on Wall Street.

  • As it stands, the sales I made in the energy and metal space yesterday look OK--for now---as the OSX and XAU both shoulder supply. Sectors that are laggy in green fields--as these were early yesterday--typically portend some pent up supply. That--and the dandruff--triggered my fingers although I wanna pick my spots (and pick the timing) on the long side and for the long-term.

  • Professor Fil (not to be confused with Lieutenant Dan) brings up a good point in his Intel Buzz about value traps. Each of our primary metrics, in and of themselves, is fatally flawed. In the case of fundamentals, margin contraction is a caveat (and something I think we'll wrestle with for a long time). Value traps are a whole 'nother ballgame but equally dangerous. If you're buying a stock because it's "cheap," you run the risk of the "E" in P/E falling, thereby making it not-so-cheap anymore. This isn't Intel specific but, as Fil mentioned, the Mother Chip fits the bill so it's an apt example. I learned this lesson the hard way in a stock called Filenet. I owned "multiple sevens" as I watched it get cheap and cheaper. And then they missed guidance, thereby removing my catalyst. I sold my position as a function of discipline. And then it got taken over for a big premium. It was a really fun time for me. Why do I share my fare? Because I hope that by communicating my missteps, Minyans will have the foresight to avoid them altogether. And trust me, I've gotta lotta missteps!

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.

  • R.P.
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