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Random Thoughts

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I think the tape acts pretty dry given the action in Intel and Yahoo!

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  • Today's tape hasn't failed, it just experienced some deferred success.

  • NYSE internals are positive. Impressive, given the news, views and fixed income pooh.

  • S&P 1220 and DJIA 10,600 are technical bogies to monitor in the muck.

  • Nosty implication for the BKX.

  • "The after-hours sell off in Technology may lead to further consolidation, but we do not believe that it falls into the same vein as a climactic reversal. The recent Rydex data shows continued skepticism in the Technology space as sector fund assets stubbornly refuse to endorse the technology move. In an apparent conflict, option data suggests complacency, while macro long/short data from Rydex shows bulls and bears with equal allocations. This data does NOT imply investors are throwing caution to the wind, instead they seem to be treading cautiously in every aspect of their decision making ex-energy." -- Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • Vibes from behind Elmer's uber-thick glasses...
    • He sees "sustained economic growth" ahead for the US.
    • He sees "unsustainable home price froth" in some places.
    • He opined that "borrowers may be vulnerable to rate rise."
    • The Fed "must continue to raise interest rates."
    • Inflation pressures are likely to be "contained"
    • Sequential Q4 growth is expected to be 3.25%-3.5%.

  • Pass the Herb!

  • Newmont (NEM) is edging back to the '05 down trendline. I still think that this name--and Exxon (XOM)--are the Citigroup (C) and Microsofts (MSFT) of tomorrow (not advice).

  • Circle this day on the calendar-it's likely the "official" beginning of the age of isolationism. If you're China, the gloves are likely gonna come off.

  • If the purpose of the journey is the journey itself, at least our trip through Ojai will be paved with great tunes!

  • We flagged the switch flippage in the semicaps early this morning and they continue to ramp. Novellus (NVLS) is up 5%, Kla-Tencor (KLAC) is 3% higher and Applied Materials (AMAT) is hitting for the hat trick. That jig has sparked the SOX to Matador City despite the fright in the Mother Chip.

  • No, I don't dislike Elmer. I just think that his policies are gonna put an unsustainable burden on my kids and grandkids. And that's simply not acceptable.

  • You don't have to agree with the price action, you just need to respect it.

  • Single digit vols. Spooky, in an ironic sorta way.

  • How can an economy grow despite stagnant conditions and muted wage growth? In a word, debt.

  • T-minus four hours till Succofest...

  • Amgen (AMGN) was good. But was it really that good?

  • We've been slammy and jammy behind the scenes as we prepare for the grandest execution of the Minyanville vision to date. The feedback has been phenomenal-folks are coming from around the world-and we're striving for an upside surprise despite the height of the bar.


    R.P.
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