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Minyan Mailbag

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Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue among the Minyanship. We share this next discussion with that very intent.

Toddo-

Good stuff today. I know the metals from a technical perspective look awful, but the idea that the dollar is such a good alternative is a joke given the structural deficits, slowing wage growth, etc. So it'll be very interesting to see which argument wins--the technicals or the fundamentals (which is that of a currency, inverse to the dollar, because gold is a store of value). But if the COT guys can knock it down, you have to play with the market not against it. Otherwise you'll lose every time.

Minyan Rhino



Minyan Rhino,

You are addressing the exact argument that we've been discussing in the 'Ville for a while--short term technical "issues" vs. a long-term structural alternative. I will again offer that the single most important determination (for anyone) is the definition of time horizon. If you're actively trading, the big picture blues is the last rung on your ladder. If you're truly committed to the dollar squalor theory, stop staring at each tick as if it's a personal affront.

I share your two-sided dilemma as I feel that the dollar is a flawed piece of paper and, true to the path of maximum frustration, those sitting on cash will experience an unexpected loss over time. Last summer, when I was on Squawk Box, Mark Haynes asked me what he should do with his money. I told him that he could give it to me--which nobody besides myself thought was funny--but then answered with a sobering thought. "The Fed is panicked," I opined, "and part of the problem is that I don't think there IS a solution." I still feel that way and the longer Elmer pours liquidity into the drunken Minx, the harsher the hangover will be once she awakes.

That doesn't mean we can't prosper on the path that leads to the dire destination. It will, however, become increasingly difficult to score outsized returns as the 8,000 hedge funds, 20,000 mutual funds and countless independent traders all chase the same tail of return. I'm not sure if any of you have picked up on this yet but the market isn't as fun as it used to be. That's why we'll need to surround ourselves with people we trust and build a network of honest and forthright individuals.

That, my friends, is why we created Minyanville.

Toddo

R.P.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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