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Random Thoughts


Sometimes, when I sense myself hoping, I'll turn my charts upside down for a fresh perspective.

  • How can u just leave me standing? Alone in a world that's so cold? Prince Bernanke has spoken and he made a concerted effort to keep the dove cheeks dry. The first two lines---that "moderation" is underway and "past policy must be taken into account" are sorta what we were vibing on Monday (bullish for asset classes and negative for the US dollar). The question, from where I stand, is two-fold: sustainability and credibility.

  • I got out of the way on some shorts (Monday) and have some core metal and energy names (although I'm admittedly nervous on the latter matter). What I'm currently trying to measure is degree, both in terms of longevity and with regard to the collective psychology. I can't imagine there's a ton of confidence in the Fed these days and, as we know, a failure from here will only exacerbate the spates of hate.

  • With that said, Boo's crew may have to chill their heels. With breadth 5:1 positive, the dollar at session lows (-50 bips), the financials en fuego (BKX through 108) and initial resistance well above (S&P 1264 and NDX 1510), the bovine feel fine to these ol' eyes. I offer those thoughts with a conscious nod to time horizon and with hopes that we can make some shekels on our collective journey.

  • And with that 'that' said, geopolitical headline risks remain. Please keep that right hand up.

  • Ewwww!

  • Is there anything more fun than sitting on a runway for hours (wearing a suit) in triple digit heat and no air conditioning? (That was me yesterday.)

  • Are the June lows in the S&P and Russell the Cliff Branch for the technical set?

  • And then there were ten...

  • Attention Manhattan Minyans--I typically don't do this (in fact, I've never done this) but a (very sharp) professor is looking for office space midtown (ASAP). One large office, three people and--take me at my word--you want these types of thinkers close by. Please ping me directly if you've got any thoughts.

  • Wow, imagine what I can do with four carrots!

  • Are you watching the names that report earnings and reminding yourself that the reaction to news is often more important than the news itself?

  • Are there really only 22 days until Minyans massively migrate to the mountains?

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey finds a slight decrease in bullish sentiment to 42.1% from 42.2% and a small increase in bearish sentiment to 33.7% from 33.3% prior.

  • No wonder the advertising market is puking!

  • Can you feel the beat within my heart? Can you see my love shine through the dark?

  • How bout some snaps to the Professorship for some seriously snazzy content yesterday?

  • Do you understand the difference between loss and loss?

  • CRB 330-335 is the multi-year trendline and the 200-day moving average in commodity land. IF we break that zone, you can expect to hear the D-word (deflation) creep into the mainstream media.

  • You should see the one that got away!

  • The BAC and JPM (and yesterday C) reports show that what money banks are making, it is capital markets (trading and merger advice) and credit cards. The more risky stuff. For BAC net interest margins fell from $385 mln to flat. Regional banks that don't have this risky activity must be having a tough time." John Succo on today's Buzz (he has positions in JPM, BAC and C )

  • While all eyes are on Yahoo's pooh (-18%), CDWC (a stealth tech proxy) is quietly rising 5% on the heels of earnings.

  • Sometimes, when I sense myself hoping, I'll turn my charts upside down for a fresh perspective. Sounds goofy but you should try it sometime.

  • T-minus eight hours till Succofest. Just in time...


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Positions in energy and metals
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