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Random Thoughts


I'm udderly stoked for Minyans in the Mountains!

  • Pledge Farley's hearing footsteps.

  • Hoofy, emboldened by IBM and with an eye on the acne, was the bull with the pull this morning. But, despite the minty breadth, the lag in Citi and GE (N's over S's) has quelled that swell. They feel like they want to go higher but risk is a lot higher than most people believe. Plus, with Elmer set to spew tomorrow, the potential for monolithic movements increases in kind.

  • O.K. Just a little pin prick. There'll be no more aaaaaaaah!

  • My kinda dog, Missy Jo she is, my kind of dog...

  • Trading from Hedonism.

  • "It makes sense to us to (a) continue to expect Citigroup (C) to underperform (it is at its lowest level relative to the S&P 500 since mid Oct. 2002, (b) continue to believe that investors should underweight financials, (c) and figure that C's weakness should, at some point allow market historians to say in retrospect, "You see... Citi's negative news was an important sign for the market. Citigroup has the makings of a massive double top. The last time the stock failed from current levels it floundered for some time." Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • Phoebe and Zoë enjoying a summer snoozer.

  • The dollar is grabbin' some green back this morning (+60 bips) as it eyeballs the recent high at DXY 90.46.

  • No wonder Meehan is gonna win the Minyanville weight bet!

  • BofA initiating Aunt Fannie (FNM) last night with a "sell" rating.

  • Traders seem to be migrating to the volatility--Google, energy, beta--with hopes of capturing dollars rather than pennies. Makes sense, but it also crowds the traditional trading dynamic.

  • Mess with the bull and you'll get the horns mister.

  • If you believe that Elmer will be hawkish tomorrow, "N's over S's" should be the trade for today.

  • "The Fed engineered this housing boom to pull the economy up after 2001. And now they may be starting to unwind it. In addition to raising short term rates, the Fed has turned net seller of U.S. treasuries. The Fed has reduced its holdings in treasuries held in its own account by $1.3 billion over the last two weeks. This is significant. The Fed will talk a sanguine game, but perhaps they are starting to do something about the excess liquidity in the system." John Succo on today's Buzz

  • The S&P acne is starting to spread as the bulls push the tape full steam ahead. 1228ish is the recent (closing) high and that becomes the focus du jour on both sides of the critter fence. Gee, it's a good thing we don't have a lot on our trading radar to cloud the risk this week!

  • It's nice to see a class act retire wearing silver and black.

  • "The hourly charts clearly show the range breakout on the SPX and NDX, but the contraction in and continued decline in the MACD on an hourly basis shows the lack of powerful momentum that often sparks a sustained advance. These are hourly charts and it is mid-July, so I don't want to dwell on the deficiency, but it's worth noting from a momentum perspective. We are playing for a continuation in trend and recent breakout. We believe that the bullish sentiment that has accompanied this breakout will eventually lead to failure, but we are not playing for that here. Biotech continues to impress us, particularly as we lower the capitalization hurdle." -- Lehman's aptly named technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • Boo wanted me to share two observations. We had a nice run into earnings (buy the rumor, sell the news?) and those pesky stochastics are giving triggerin' sell signals across my mainstay sectors/averages.

  • Hey, I'm short 'em but I wanna get squeezed hard on this one.

  • Mister Softie (MSFT) is at an uber-important level as it tickles multiple highs and the 200-day. As 2% of the DJIA, 2.34% of the S&P and 7.25% of the NDX, I wanted to make sure that it's on ye radar.

  • A few points of interest after a slew of similar questions regarding our upcoming Minyans in the Mountains financial retreat.

    • NO, it's not just for high-end professionals-the network of human capital, shared learning and complementary skill-sets will offer something for everyone.

    • YES, we want you to bring your family-we're all about community in the 'Ville and expect to see a slew of young one's chillin' in Ojai.

    • And NO, it's not gonna be all work-while the mornings will offer fabu panels and presentations, the afternoons will be all about balancing with golf, softball, spa services and Daisy watching by the pool. And, of course, the nights will be my personal favorite, particularly the big red barn party on Saturday night, complete with a kick-ass band and a bad-ass mechanical bull!

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