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Intel (INTC) Q2 earnings

Expect press release Tues, July 19, 4:15 ET

Conf call 5:30 ET Call: 800.299.8538 passcode 66435251

Click here for the webcast

Street Consensus

Q2 EPS $0.32; Revs $9.22 bln

Q3 EPS $0.36; Revs $9.76 bln

2005 EPS $1.45; Revs $38.82 bln

2006 EPS $1.56; Revs $41.59 bln

Company Guidance as of 6/8/05

Q2 Revenue: between $9.1 and $9.3 bln (was $8.6 to $9.2 bln, primarily driven by ongoing strong demand for notebook products)

Q2 quarter gross margin: approximately 57%, +/- a point, (as compared to the previous expectation of 56%, +/- a couple of points)

Q2 Gains from equity investments: approximately $100 million, higher than the previous expectation of approximately $70 million.

Q2 tax rate: 26% +/- point

Q2 Expenses (R&D plus MG&A): approximately $2.6 bln

2005 R&D: unchanged at approximately $5.2 bln.

2005 Capital spending: between $5.4 bln and $5.8 bln, higher than previous $4.9 - $5.3 bln.

Q2 Depreciation: $1.1 bln +/- $100 mln. Full year is unchg'd at $4.4 bln +/- $100 mln

Q2 Amortization: $35 mln and approximately $125 mln for the full year.

Recent Street Commentary

  • WSJ thinks INTC will report revs at the high end of the range based on the company's stranglehold on the laptop market. With the stock up 8.5% into the report, they wonder how much is already priced in. Fred Hickey thinks slowing demand for computers in general and AMD's entrance into the business could impact INTC's normal second half revenue uptick. He says estimates and guidance will be too high.
  • RBC Capital boosted Q2 revs from $9.3 bln (high end of guidance) to $9.45 bln. The firm takes Q2 gross margin estimates from 57.5% to 58% from 57.5%; Q2 EPS raised to $0.35 citing strength in most geographies and products. They also raised Q3 numbers to $10.2 bln from $10 bln.
  • Lehman is looking for continued solid results noting their Q2 EPS estimate of $0.32 could be conservative. The firm also thinks their below consensus outlook for Q3 could also be conservative (consensus $0.36 and $9.75 bln).
  • Smith Barney sees positive PC results for INTC, AMD, and MU citing strong volume growth for chipmakers. The firm believes communications results are strong, but weaker leading up to Q2 results could impact ATLR, CY, IDTI, and XLNX. The firm would use soft summer months to build positions for 2H05 in names such as XLNX, FSLB, INTC, and IDTI.
  • Friedman, Billings, Ramsey sees 2H forecasts for desktop components improving, notebooks remaining strong and the company's 65nm manufacturing advantage will help margins in '06. FBR upgraded the stock on 6/29 to outperform from market perform.
  • Merrill Lynch & Co reiterated a neutral on the stock expecting a strong Q2 of $0.32 for EPS / on revs of $9.2 bln (with an upbeat Q3 outlook). The firm thinks margin expansion will be difficult given aggressive spending plans for both INTC & AMD.
  • FBCO is looking for Q2 numbers to be above firm /Street estimates of $9.2 bln / $0.34. The firm sees upside as checks from Taiwan suggest strong notebooks sales through June.
  • Needham reiterates a buy as they expect a bullish 2H outlook after strong 1H. The firm thinks INTC will beat its Q2 estimates of $0.33 / $9.22 bln and provide Q3 guidance of $9.7 bln-$10.2 bln.
  • Raymond James raises Q2 estimates as channel checks show the quarter tracking ahead of expectations. The firm ups its Q2 estimate to $0.35 from $0.33.
  • Jefferies highlighted channel checks showing strong PC demand in desktop / notebook area. The firm is raising their PC Unit forecast to 11.6% y/y growth from 10.4% y/y growth in 2005.
  • JP Morgan checks show outstanding visibility for Q3. The firm expects INTC to meet their Q2 estimates of $9.2 bln / $0.31 as channel checks show strong demand for microprocessors. JPM also boosted 2005 estimates to $1.49 from $1.45 and 2006 estimates to $1.60 from $1.50.
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