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Humphrey Hawkins


Overall, the July testimony has a negative bias. But if we qualify that it's a Presidential election year, the bias shifts toward Hoofy.


Fed Chairman Greenspan delivers semi-annual testimony to Congress tomorrow. This occurs in February and July of each year in accordance with the Humphrey Hawkins Act.

By limiting the query to the first day of his comments (since the text is generally repeated on the second day) and to the month of July, the results were as follows:

• The SP futures closed lower in 11 of 16 occurrences. For the day, the average high was +.52%, average low -1.02%, and close -.19%.

• The market greeted the Chairman's testimony much better during a Presidential Election cycle. The SP futures closed higher in 3 of the 4 occurrences. The closes were as follows: 1998 +.76%; 1992 -.19%; 1996 +1.51%; and in 2000 +1.06%

Remember that past performance does not indicate future results.

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