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Random Thoughts


It always takes Toddo a few days to get back in the groove.


  • The piggies (BKX 100) and semis (SOX 450) will offer good reads on the "healthy pullback" (vs. fake-out breakout) front.

  • Vols are tickin' higher to start the new week. The VXO is up 4% while the VXN is up 7%.

  • Talk about a double double!

  • Crude is off an additional 1.5% following last week's oil slick. There's a camp that views higher energy prices as bearish for stocks (higher input costs) and a tribe that views it as bullish (a rising liquidity tide lifts all boats). Scotto Reamer will assert that there is nary a correlation between Texas tea and equities.

  • Market internals are slippy as the NYSE edges 2:1 to the bad.

  • What, exactly, is bratwurst?

  • Cassie and the Peace Corps? Sign me up!

  • The cyclicals and select retailers are trading dry in an otherwise soft patch.

  • "The best market moves tend to come with little or no expectations, and that's the unfortunate circumstance surrounding last week's breakout. With implied volatility near multi-year lows, p/c data showing aggressive call vs. put buying and our MSI indicator in an "overly optimistic" zone, it appears that the breakout through 1230 on the SPX has come as little surprise. Such a condition likely caps the extension that the market is able to show from its breakout point, but data points such as the Rydex Long/Short ratio and the segmentation of sentiment still provides some marginal breathing-room for the bulls." Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Fame

  • Chubbs Peterson would be proud!

  • "Citi (C), down about a buck, is weighing on the BKX out of the gate, but the stock won't see any technical damage until and unless it falls below 44.50. Meanwhile, the OSX 145 and OIH 101 are important support levels to throw on your radar today. A move to 144 will break a spread triple bottom on the OSX and potentially bring into play trend line support in the 137-138 area. The OIH will break a spread triple bottom at 100, with longer-term trend line support in the 93-94 area." Pepe Depew on today's Buzz

  • I hope I'm wrong but I still can't shake the feeling that the Yanks will be playing golf in October.

  • Minyans in the Mountains begins in one month and the Buzz on the Street is palpable. In addition to the panels and presentations that will occupy the early hours, afternoons will be open for golf, softball, spa services, barn parties and poolside lounging. With our network of human capital converging in Ojai, this promises to be the truest embodiment of the Minyanville spirit to date. Space-while still available-is limited so please take a good look at our Sundance of Finance. I promise you that the financial industry has never seen an event quite like this

  • Please note Google as it tries to flip the upside switch. And please remember that they'll gaggle earnings on Thursday.

  • Last week's S&P 500 surge came as no surprise to us. What was surprising, however, is that the DJIA and the DJTA, among other indices, failed to confirm the S&P's breakout with like upside breakouts of their own. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is a cautionary red flag, which is another reason we remain on the sidelines for trading accounts. As repeatedly stated, we thought the DJIA's June 17th high of 10656 was the high water mark for the summer. As well, we thought the DJTA's June 7th high of 3670 was the summer's high for the Transports. While so far both of those highs have not been breached, they are clearly vulnerable given the upside action of many of the indices. Of course that is unless such non-confirmations, in conjunction with a VERY overbought market, prove to be yet another "fake out," as has been all of the upside/downside breakouts year-to-date." Jeff "As good as it gets" Saut of Raymond James

  • Shortly after launching into some Dr. Evil discourse at Gibson's ("My father was a relentlessly self-improving boulangerie owner from Belgium with low grade narcolepsy and a penchant for buggery. ..."), another Doctor-we'll call him Jon Najarian-immediately challenged my sourcing of the quote (he maintained that it was from Goldmember despite my repeated assertion that it was from the original). Still, he pressed his bet, openly challenging my pop culture acumen in front of the circle of trust. "I'll bet you a pie in the face," he challenged, obviously oblivious to the pending shame that awaits. So, in the interest of giving something back, we'll auction off the chance to toss that pie in his eye at the Saturday afternoon barn party. As the proceeds will benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education, I'll gladly start the bidding at $500.

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