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Buzz and Banter


  • The economic and corporate profit news continues to reinforce the "good enough" quarter scenario. Economy and earnings are should be good enough to hold stocks near where they are, but are unlikely to be "good enough" to lead to another imminent leg higher.
  • The market has already been correcting internally as there are nearly the same percentage of oversold vs. overbought stocks in the OEX despite the perception that the market is JUST beginning to correct. 35% of the S&P 100 components are overbought, with 23% oversold (last night's close). The overbought percentage is down from a peak 80% in early June.
  • Along the lines of "watch what they do vs. what they say," there appears to be a healthy amount of anxiety in the markets because of the significant move off the March low without any significant signs of an accelerating economy. People may talk bullish to the media, but we are not hearing it during recent investor visits.
  • The near-term framework remains the same - violent moves (both higher and lower) with limited progress in either direction as the market digests mixed news in a transitioning fundamental period.
  • As the market works off the overbought condition, it would make sense that those who wouldn't buy due to the fear of an overbought retrenchment become more comfy on the buy side. Basically, that sentiment could put a bid underneath the market.
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