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Early Morning Randoms


Weren't you supposed to be on vacation?!?!

  • Memo to self: if the vacation "arsumes" that Italy's airline Alitalia will stick to its schedule you are indeed making an arse of yourself and your vacation.

  • I was going to dedicate a News & Views to D.R. Horton's (DHI) tolling of the housing bell, but at this point I'm not sure I'd be breaking any new ground. Suffice to say that the anticipated slashing of EPS by increments of $1 rather than $.01 or $.10 is now in full swing. The post-market reaction (down 5-10% across the group) may seem harsh until one considers that DHI is probably the best of the gang. By my guestimates, (hint: they are slightly more bearish than the consensus) Beazer Homes (BZH) and Toll Bros. (TOL) P/E's on next year EPS are now in the double digits, on their way to Googlesque multiples. And no Minyans, it won't be the "P" in P/E that's going to rise.

  • The multi-year uptrend line for the S&P 500 (SPX) now stands at 1222. The Russell 2000 (RTY) broke it again yesterday – for the second time since June (weekly basis)

  • Just because I've not been mentioning specific names of late, it does not mean I'm not involved. To the contrary. As the going gets tough I am hiding more and more in the names I feel relatively most comfortable with, against short Index positions, and very meaningful put positions in broad and narrow Indexes as well as a few individual names.

  • It's 3:36 a.m. EST as I type this and the S&P futures (ES) look to be bouncing on the "relative strength" in Europe (DAX -1.3%, CAC40 -1%, FTSE -.75%). On a short term trading basis, until we clear yesterday's highs Boo thinks every uptick is a good tick to play with. And if Hoofy were to crash the party, long the Naz 100 (NDX) / short the S&P (500) ("Ketchup theory") is as "bullish" as I could get right now.

  • After the Brunswick (BC) pre-announcement, the consumer's coffin got nailed again by Polaris (PII), as the "death of the consumer" seems greatly . . . understated by the broad media.

  • Why am I not sleeping at 3:42 a.m.?

  • Keep an eye on the de-coupling of oil prices vs. oil stocks and the recent tight "positive" correlation between the Oil Services Hldr. (OIH) and the SPX, for a sign that energy costs are finally reaching the consumer's pain threshold.

  • Sirf Tech. (SIRF) (the "guts " of GPS gadgets) versus Garmin (GRMN) the glamorous face of these toys? I'd need to see a more favorable valuation spread between the two, but it makes a lot of sense to me.

  • It's 3:52 a.m. and the Bloomie flashes that the BOJ Head will "consider equities when deciding policy". You mean they are targeting asset prices?!?!?

  • In the next few hours, ARM's poster-child BankUnited Financial (BKUNA) will report: see it.

  • A friend of mine in the old country pinged me that gas prices have passed the $6/gallon mark. Wanna try that on for pain?

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Position in BZH, SPX, IWM, ES, OIH
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