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Random Thoughts

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Keep those doggies rollin'....

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  • A fellow Minyan asked me if this was a "sloppy opening" and I said "I think it was pretty orderly for sale." But then I noted the VXO (+15%) and told him that it is starting to get a bit fearful in the uber short-term (although we're a ways away from legitimate fear)

  • (Buzz 10:28) Looking for defined risk upside beta tries? SOX 410 (October lows) and HGX 202 ('04 acne) are right here, right now, and very tight.

  • The SOX has since jumped a quick percent. If I had dabbled (with a SOX 410 stop), I'd be rollin', rollin', rollin' my stops higher and playing this trade sans risk. I did dabble a "smidge" in some homies with that very same mindset. Keep those doggies rollin'....

  • My very close friend MJ was just hired by the new Hawaiian Tropic Zone restaurant franchise. She asked me if I know any beautiful, young girls with outstanding personalities who would be interested in lunch or dinner hosting shifts. Man--timing is everything as five years ago I could have had alotta fun with this! Alas, I'm (happily) spoken for these days so I figured I would toss it out there for ye faithful. If you--or someone you know--is interested, lemme know and I'll hook it up.

  • I finally flopped into bed around 12:30 this morning and mistakenly tossed Dead Calm on the tube. There just isn't any way to turn that off once you start watching it.

  • I've peeled out of partial piggy puts as a function of discipline (trading around a bias) and the pop in vol (VXO +15%).

  • The XAU reverse dandruff (bullish) will remain in play above XAU 135. XAU 150 (rebuffed yesterday) and XAU 153-157 (upside gappage) remain on ye radar.

  • Minyan G-Hill (no relation to Grant) pinged to point to the "other side" of the XAU technical levels we noted before. "Toddo, missed you bud. I'm takin' the other side of the XAU/HUI trade...pull up a daily or better yet a two day--that be a big bottle of shampoo - just in time for to turn off the faucet." He's right---that's some pretty textbook dandruff (head & shoulders) since January. And while technicals are but one of our four metrics, I wanted to make sure ye faithful saw it.

  • Please note the dollar, which was off 25 bips early and has since flipped the upside switch. That's not what Hoofy wants to see.

  • Breadth, meanwhile, is stank--worse than three to one negative out of the opening gate.

  • The banks (under BKX 108) and the brokers (broke 200-day) remain a focus as a massively important tape tell.

  • And finally, some vibes from my brother Snoop "I'll see you at MIM3!" Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities:

    "Our fundamental thesis, outlined in Mid-year Thesis Update – 06/27/06, has been that a mid-cycle economic slowdown is here. This means that interest rates should have likely peaked, the U.S. Dollar should strengthen and stocks should begin to stabilize and move meaningfully higher. Since we have been expecting slower economic data, nothing over recent weeks has happened to alter our view.

    When nothing changes fundamentally, we turn to the charts to see if they could tell us how to wiggle within the context of our intermediate-term view. This is what we see for the broad market as measured by the S&P 500.
    • The S&P 500 is moving into an important near-term support zone that should hold.
    • The weekly picture shows that intermediate-term momentum should remain positive.
    • If the near-term support levels are broken and the intermediate-term indicators roll over, there could be more pain than we thought before the gains we expect."



R.P.

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