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Random Thoughts


Repeat after me---opportunities are made up easier than losses.

  • The greenback continues to grind higher (DXY +70 bips) as we edge to the top of the Hump. While the "dollar devaluation vs. asset class deflation" theme is the big picture, it's an asset class headwind worthy of a noodle as we fit the pieces together.

  • I'm keeping a rather close eye on the developments in Israel for two reasons. First, the geopolitical impact of further Mid East instability may ripple through financial markets. More importantly, I've got family there now---people I care a great deal about--and violence isn't something that sits particularly well when viewed through that lens.

  • Levels of today's lore include BKX 108, NDX 1510, Russell 707 (200-day) and XAU 150ish (see below).

  • Chewing through my morning charts, I've picked up the potential reverse dandruff (bullish) in the XAU (metals). I love this long-term, as you know, with a conscious nod to the risks of the Phantom. If sector rotation--rather than monolithic migration--is the state of our current art, this technical context could influence upcoming price action. A move through XAU 150 would bode well for the group and put it on track to tackle the upside gap between XAU 153 and XAU 157.

  • "The Nasdaq-100 has six lower highs on the daily chart to start the month. This happened just twice before in the last ten years: October 1998 and August 2004. From the close on the sixth day, the index was higher at month-end both times and the max downside close from that day through the remainder of the month was not worse than -1.5%. Only two occurrences, so take with grain of salt. But interesting to point out how rare it is to see this kind of pressure to start a month." Jason Roney on today's Buzz

  • As I was putting the final touches on my opening scribe, I heard someone from Standard & Poors being interviewed on television. He opined that tech prices have been stagnant for the last three years while earnings have improved, making a case for "cheapness" in the group. While that may be true, please remember that the fatal flaw of fundamental analysis is margin contraction.

  • "Yesterday's rally seemed to come from nowhere, in more ways than one. There isn't much agreement on its cause (KLA Tencor (KLAC), Castro, etc.), and there won't be. Because the rally originated during a "no-bias" environment, it's not a primary trend, but a correction. Unless last week's highs are broken, yesterday's buying spree is actually confirmation of last week's Double Top." Rod "don't call me Larry!" David on today's Buzz.

  • I was looking for the Russell (sitting on the 200-day) and pulled the Retail Index up by mistake. Low and behold, it has failed to hold multiple lows (from last October).

  • Risk aversion? Are you mad?

  • Minyans in the Mountains is---count 'em!--29 days away and we're brimming with excitement. I can already taste the S'mores and hear the tunes from the humdinga ranch parties on Friday and Saturday nights!

  • Note to self: Alotta folks are still on summer vacation and liquidity is thinner than it otherwise might be. That's a recipe to trade a bit smaller--particularly as the VXO scrapes along the bottom of the recent range and tickles its 200-day.

  • Want Drugs not hugs? Check out Tickle me Tuttle's morning cup of Jo as he delves into the retail drug space. He highlights names such as Rite Aid (RAD), Walgreen (WAG), CVS and Longs Drug Stores (LDG).

  • Breadth? Worse than 2:1 negative. That, along with the dollar, is cause for bovine pause.

  • Many thanks to our friends at Syracuse University who continue to champion the Minyanville mission. The brass was just in my office talking about some professorship roles of a different ilk, a cause that's near and dear to my heart, and I'm humbled by the consideration. Who woulda thunk it while I was face painting at the Dome, eh?

  • Something tells me that this is gonna be a great sale!

  • A Minyan buddy pinged me regarding some chatter in the Street and I responded by saying that I feel like I'm missing a lot of trades. I then quickly reminded myself that the fear of missing typically leads to pressing which inevitably leads to sunk costs. Repeat after me---opportunities are made up easier than losses.

  • R.P.
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Position in financials, metals
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