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China Rider

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Take up your china doll
It's only fractured
And just a little nervous
From the fall


(Grateful Dead)


The afternoon drive has started to thrive as Snapper stemmed the earlier dive. We must always keep our right hand up during contra-hour moves that stick out like a green thumb and today is no exception. Still, while obvious potholes remain (semis), the old school hung tough all session (retail and banks) and that, in and of itself, has given hope to the Matador City committee.

The obvious dichotomy is adding to the collective confusion that has littered the landscape of late. Earnings, so far, have been a bummer but if we took our murky medicine early (as Hoofy hopes), the hedge fund hot potato could be leaning the wrong way into the fundamental frolic. My stochastics support that view--as do a certain horse's credit spreads--although a very strong argument can be made the other way

By the time tomorrow's opening bell tolls, Merrill (MER:NYSE), Johnny John (JNJ:NYSE), Gannett (GCI:NYSE) and a host of other companies will have spewed their news. With the Minx within spittin' distance of numerous inflection points--and expiration looming on Friday--the next few sessions could be wild and wooly. While I am a steadfast bear in the big picture--and most likely into the election--I'm not as negative in the immediate future--although I reserve the right to pull that comment should Citigroup (C:NYSE) decisively break $45.

The macro markets were pretty muted today as the dollar, fixed income and the metals wiggled and jiggled. I sense that we'll soon see increased volatility across asset classes as portfolio managers jockey their horse for the second half race. It's gonna be nutty, I'm sure, but for whatever it's worth, I continue to feel that the metals and energy will offer relative value in the longer-term. What I haven't wrapped my arms around is whether Carrie smacks 'em all before that trade unfolds.

Fare ye well into the bell and have an awesome night.

R.P.
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