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Random Thoughts

By

No guessing please.

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  • The banks and retailers trade relatively dry in an otherwise fugly tape. If Snapper sets a trapper, these two sectors 'should' pave the way. Please note that the retail index (RLX) is sitting directly on the 200-day moving average.

  • From Scottie Reamer on the Buzz: "I have said repeatedly that I believe the precious metals have benefited inordinately from worldwide "Super Money": that the liquidity engine that is the Fed has pumped up prices in commodities to unsustainable levels. I have also said that the technical patterns for the XAU specifically have been overlapped and corrective looking off the May lows, suggesting those gains would be retraced (and then some). And now we have some interesting sentiment data: MBH commodity advisors has Gold sentiment at 81%, this compared to the 85% that registered when Gold made its March/April peak. I have an important potential trend exhaustion point on Wed or Thurs this week. Never advice, but FWIW."

  • I watched two movies this weekend: Fahrenheit 9/11 and Miracle. Talk about two opposite ends of the emotional spectrum!

  • K-Mart and Carmello.

  • My three cents (inflation) is that Carrie has reflated all asset classes (including the metals) and when that trade gets unwound, the supply/demand equation will become more problematic. Still, over the longer term, my humble opinion continues to be that the metals will offer a very attractive alternative to the dollar (which I think has some very scary structural issues).

  • This is scary.

  • Why does the mainstream media always try and point fingers whenever the tape is lower but make you feel silly for missing any rallies?

  • Snapper is a proud papa!

  • The VXO (volatility index)--up 9% today--is now 26% off its lows of a few weeks back.

  • Mr. Wish is swinging by today to talk talent for the Critter's Choice Awards!

  • I remember watching the miracle on ice in '80. Herb Brooks did some kinda job.

  • Has anyone seen Sammy?

  • S&P 1100. S&P 1080. S&P 1050.

  • You will never be as long (short) as you would like when the market rallies (fails).

  • This could be the least funny randoms of all time!

  • Discipline trumps conviction.

  • While a bounce is quite possible (short-term oversold and lotsa looming catalysts), we're still eight miles away from any real fear in the markets.

  • The Morgan Stanley EEOC case is slated to start this week. Keep that on your radar if you're trading the financials.

  • Minyan Jeff Saut is a good dude.

  • The single most important element in any relationship is trust. David Slaine offered me that advice over ten years ago when I was at a professional crossroads and I've carried it with me ever since.

  • Citigroup (C:NYSE) continues to struggle despite a marginally green BKX.

  • Crude is trading 1.5% higher today.

  • Are we still in the early phases of denial?

  • N-U-T-S nuts!

  • Trading often ushers in the highest of the highs and the lowest of the lows. The key to longevity is to smooth the process and stay as centered as possible.

    R.P.
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position in c, silver
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