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DeGraaf Call

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Did I hear him use the word "stagflation"?

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The following highlights a few of the key themes from Lehman's monthly conference call with talented technical analyst, Jeff DeGraaf. It is provided as a very quick synopsis that is neither complete nor is it meant as advice.


Momentum has moved to negative from June levels with stochastics beginning to curl, negative breadth, and low volume flows.


DeGraaf is keying off the 1,100 level on the S&P as a break would turn 3-5 trend indicators negative - suggestive of a downtrend

A break of 1080 would be a further confirmation of a downtrend completing the top pattern

1147 would turn the trend back toward the positive side


Entering a period of seasonal weakness


Percentage of ARM volume is currently at a level that coincides with historical peak in 10 year yields


Sentiment still overly optimistic, reflecting still too much enthusiasm at current prices based on their master sentiment work. That becomes more important as momentum fails to confirm and as we test critical support.


The charts on the commodities look interesting - Soybeans - basing / oversold


Charts suggest more dollar weakness after recent pause


Silver looks very interesting in the course of the breakout $6.06, a resumption of the uptrend

Correction in silver appears to have run its course

Sentiment favorable and support held suggesting a continuation


Positive groups

Aerospace and defense
Comm IC
Commodity chemicals
Oil & gas
E&P

Weak groups

Semis
Tobacco
Pharma


Need to see confirmation of recent strength in transports by the industrials

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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