Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Consumer OpEx


Appropos of my earlier post about Iraq, I haven't heard much lately about energy costs, now that the war talk has waned. Again, with an economy on knife's edge between growth and contraction, it's important to keep these on your radar screen. Let's look at the full energy spectrum: crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, and propane. Year over year price increases for all of these are, respectively: 16%, 83%, 18%, 13%, and 45%. [For those of you with a Bloomberg you can pull up one year charts on crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, and propane with the following tickers: CL1, NG1, HU1, QZ1, and PN1. I think you'll find the charts much more telling than the figures above]. I will try to post the graphs associated with these commodities, as they are much more interesting than simply the price appreciation alone.

The point here? Consumer energy costs are up meaningfully year/year. Maybe we haven't seen a real uptick in consumer spending (see today's retail sales figures from KSS, JCP, MAY, others) because they are spending all of their mortgage refi and (soon) tax rebate dollars on energy costs. Despite this backdrop, retail stocks specifically and consumer discretionary names in general are still pricing in a serious consumer spending rebound. Incredible.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
Positions in KSS

The informatio= n on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the perf= ormance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles a= ppear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily t= he views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing c= ontained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advic= e addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase,= sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prosp= ective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sal= e of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader eith= er individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional.= Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities th= at are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles = are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund = discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or dire= ction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit busin= ess of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management= and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or ot= her communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.<= /p>

Featured Videos