Maybe the fact that you're up early means something Toddo?
I ran into the devil, babe
He loaned me twenty bills
I spent the night in Utah
In a cave up in the hills
The Minx sprang to life and after a few begrudging gyrations, eased lower in early trade. While the breadth is decidedly negative, I've yet to see the "real money" sellers step in. It's still early, mind you, but the supply side of the equation has yet to shape up. Boo's keeping a wary eye on Genentech (DNA:NASD), Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) and Cisco (CSCO:NASD) (acting dry).
I've scaled into a few more fall puts (dollar kind) and still have some downside exposure on in ETF land. While I'm not sure if they're ready to exhale (yet), I've placed my stops at the levels of execution (this allows me to maintain my short while limiting my exposure to a flat trade). They've tried to Snapper a few times already but met resistance. If (big if) they can garner some jig, please note the upside gaps in place now (as a function of today's lower opening).
What do I think? I'd say there's about a 25% chance of a blow off type of move (higher) into expiration. The other 75% is mixed between "choppy and range bound" and the start of an overdue melt. It's not what I see that scares me (on the upside), it's what I can't see (liquidity). Still, I think corporate America is gonna have to show us the money if the Minx is to give it back to them.
Watch S&P 985 (gap fillage) and NDX 1250, if and when, for gap startage. The longer they stay down (think dog), the better chance that they'll close near the lows. Keep in mind, however, that General Electric (GE:NYSE) will paint the tape before tomorrow's opening and we may see some posturing into that event.
Good luck as you find your way....and Boo, please get off the babysitter.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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