Five Reasons to Listen to George Soros
By Keith Fitz-Gerald Jul 01, 2009 11:30 am
And why interpreting his position as bullish is almost certainly a mistake.
In a June 20 interview with Polish television, the Hungarian-born Soros acknowledged that this has been the most serious crisis he’s seen in his lifetime, but said that: “Definitely, the worst is behind us.”For those who like to interpret “Soros-speak,” that’s as powerful a sign as any that Soros -- one of the world’s most successful investors -- is “going long.”
But is he wrong?
On the one hand, the World Bank's busy roiling the markets with recently updated figures that project a 2.9% decline in global economic activity this year. Then there are the signs that the green shoots (how I’ve come to detest that term) may be more like weeds. Debt's devastating the developed world, and the once-mighty G-7 looks more like a G-1 every day.
On the other hand, I wouldn’t bet against him. When it comes to financial influence and acumen, Soros is about as powerful and prescient as they come. He’s made billions over the years speculating on things that others simply couldn’t see -- or, more often, didn’t want to see. He’s legendary for making big bets on market timing, even if, by his own admission, he isn't always right.
For the millions of investors tempted to interpret Soros’ comments as bullish, I urge caution. In fact, this advice applies to any comments that might be made by such investment legends as Warren Buffett, or even Soros’ former investment partner, noted author and commentator Jim Rogers.
I preach caution for 3 reasons:
1. Despite the fact that each of these men is fabulously successful, the typical retail investor has no idea how much money they’re betting on the upside, or what percentage of their wealth is involved in any publicized position.
2. It’s not clear what -- if any -- protective stops are being used, so you don’t know whether the positions they’ve taken represent core portfolio holdings or speculative trades.
3. These revelations -- disclosures, really -- are usually made after the fact, which means that investors who may want to tag along for the ride are put in the risky position of having to make “me too” investments.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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Reply
2009-07-01 11:54:34
so true
My mother made a comment about me a few years ago
she said
If you bought it, it sure was at a good price - meaning REAL VALUE
I'll wait for opportunity and pass on 99%
she said
If you bought it, it sure was at a good price - meaning REAL VALUE
I'll wait for opportunity and pass on 99%
2009-07-01 11:57:48
Soros
Soros is one of the most shady characters out there. He is a socialist and most likely senile at this point. I will disregard anything he says...
2009-07-01 13:29:45
Soros
If shady and socialist, you mean he knows da boyz with their hands on the power levers know how to screw the little guy, you're correct. He's seen it happen in Europe and the U.S. There are no efficient and free markets when they are manipulated and steered by lobbyists. Maybe some of us believe we can do something for the greater good occasionally versus "what's in it for me". I have made good money in the system, but I haven't forgotten where my parents came from.
2009-07-01 15:04:54
The Worst Behind
Very well could be George. No, I did not leave a comma out after the word "be".
2009-07-01 15:05:29
Importance of diversification
One should practice diversification by being short several companies with overleveraged balance sheets, inflated P/E's and weakening market share, instead of just one such company. One should never put all the cracked eggs in one basket.
Soros admited he underestimated the scope of this bust, if he believes it is more than 1/2 over he is still wrong. He does have the ability to imagine the dislocative event, forged by personal experience when his family fled the Nazis. The swath of destruction still to come is beyond the imaginings of most, and that is a good thing.
Soros admited he underestimated the scope of this bust, if he believes it is more than 1/2 over he is still wrong. He does have the ability to imagine the dislocative event, forged by personal experience when his family fled the Nazis. The swath of destruction still to come is beyond the imaginings of most, and that is a good thing.
2009-07-01 15:14:23
Excellent article
Keith,
Excellent article.
I think Soros meant the danger of a true collapse is over. Not that things won't be very good.
Also I think he went back into retirement, so his mortal fund managers are probably running things
Excellent article.
I think Soros meant the danger of a true collapse is over. Not that things won't be very good.
Also I think he went back into retirement, so his mortal fund managers are probably running things
2009-07-01 19:14:35
"...swath of destruction...
still to come is beyond the imaginings of most..." I'd agree with, Lee! That the misery to come can't be imagined by most, so as to cut it as short as possible, is a GOOD thing--I'd disagree. I believe that the economic mess the world is suffering was created by the central banks, in order that they increase their (already obscene) power. Abolish fractional reserve fiat currency systems & parasitic central banking elites can't thrive at the expense of the hard-working masses (who lack understanding of their plight). The current efforts to reflate cannot prevent the ultimate, miserable, end...merely prolong the misery. Soros, being a socialist, must applaud the correlation of central banking with ever-bigger...bigger...bigger...BIGGER GOVT. Don't know that he groks the fullness of the current bust's cause, tho'.
2009-07-01 19:58:30
"...swath of destruction...
Joan, stop watching so much fox noise and maybe you can realize how silly your Soros-socialist-central banking-bigger government canard is. Soros made his money by correctly betting on actions by the "central banks" and those same banks have spent the last 20 years doing everything in their power to dismantle government control and regulation.
2009-07-01 20:16:42
"...swath of destruction...
Funny. I agree with both of you...or disagree with both.
I think it's because I don't separate the government from banks and business. They are one and the same now, and mostly have always been part of the corporate mindset since the 15th century or so. Government gets corporations to do what it wants to keep its hands clean, and corporations get government to provide an air of legitimacy to their exploitation of the planet.
The banks simply fill in the blank spaces between power and aristocracy. Maybe we should call them "blanks" from now on....
In the meantime, generations of us have become incorporated and don't know how to see any other way to live....until we must.
Plug here for Douglas Rushkoff's new book, "Life, Inc."
I think it's because I don't separate the government from banks and business. They are one and the same now, and mostly have always been part of the corporate mindset since the 15th century or so. Government gets corporations to do what it wants to keep its hands clean, and corporations get government to provide an air of legitimacy to their exploitation of the planet.
The banks simply fill in the blank spaces between power and aristocracy. Maybe we should call them "blanks" from now on....
In the meantime, generations of us have become incorporated and don't know how to see any other way to live....until we must.
Plug here for Douglas Rushkoff's new book, "Life, Inc."
2009-07-01 20:23:47
Going long...or lying?
I don't know how to tell the difference anymore, do you?
"For those who like to interpret âSoros-speak,â that's as powerful a sign as any that Soros -- one of the world's most successful investors -- is âgoing long."
Great article. I think you covered the basics well when it comes to investing when one has control and a little time to think. The public mentality is to find some 'system' that is easy to use and doesn't require thought or time to implement. In other words, getting rich for the sake of having money. These guys still act as though money is a tool that needs an operator to make it work. Much like life itself. We have all become such willing little cogs in the economic collective that we don't know how to live when the plug is pulled from the cheap oil socket and the perpetual growth promises stop feeding the machine.
"For those who like to interpret âSoros-speak,â that's as powerful a sign as any that Soros -- one of the world's most successful investors -- is âgoing long."
Great article. I think you covered the basics well when it comes to investing when one has control and a little time to think. The public mentality is to find some 'system' that is easy to use and doesn't require thought or time to implement. In other words, getting rich for the sake of having money. These guys still act as though money is a tool that needs an operator to make it work. Much like life itself. We have all become such willing little cogs in the economic collective that we don't know how to live when the plug is pulled from the cheap oil socket and the perpetual growth promises stop feeding the machine.
2009-07-01 23:04:35
The Loest of the Slime
These are people who simply know how to manipulate the system the best. They take wealth away from those who produce it while perpetuating the notion that you can truly have something for nothing.
This "something for nothing" mentality is a cancer on this society. These are despicable people who care not for anything nor anybody but themselves. Total lowlife.
This "something for nothing" mentality is a cancer on this society. These are despicable people who care not for anything nor anybody but themselves. Total lowlife.
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