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Random Thoughts


Have a safe and happy 4th of July weekend!

  • Rats!

  • That's ORANGEMAN Robert Rubin!

  • Whataya say, Doctor J?

  • The world is flat.

  • The long end of the fixed income curve is getting jack hammered (-27/32) but NYSE breadth is still minty (that's bullish).

  • Rude crude is up 1.5% just in time for the holiday drive.

  • The smoking gun!

  • The NDX, after failing yesterday at the 200-day, is clinging to the 50-day the way Farley clings to his blankie.

  • Fear? That's the other guy's problem. Especially with the VXO down 5%.

  • Join Jeff Macke and I for a San Fran Minyanfest on Tuesday (starting at 4:00 PM at Perry's on Union Street). I'll bring some gratis tee's while Jeff will have free armbands!

  • "The barometer on the left is positioned with trend in its most bullish position, while momentum is residing in its most bearish position. That makes the current call difficult because momentum has tended to be a stronger indication, though admittedly more fickle in recent months than trend. The negative momentum is not coinciding with a deep oversold condition, but will obviously create one if it persists, and therein lays the rub: a market not oversold, with negative momentum and a positive trend. We are in the camp that the market is likely to undergo more distribution before reaching the point of no return, and that process is the one likely to cause the trend to deteriorate. Surprising is the lack of influence the price of oil has had on stocks in recent days. It's as if higher oil was bullish because it reaffirmed the notion of a robust economy. As the price of crude slips, the question regarding legitimate sustainable growth seems to come into question, and with it weakening stock prices. Materials, Industrials and Energy continue to be our sectors of concern, while Healthcare and Technology look more defensive." -- Lehman Technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • Meehan wants to be the Belgium Minyan Ambassador.

  • I'm having Succofest D.T's after missing this week's meld.

  • "We don't have the user-centricity. Until we understand context, which is way beyond presence - presence is the most trivial notion of context." -- Bill Gates in 2002, explaining (sort of) Microsoft's .Net initiative.

  • "The Fed created housing inflation and they know it. They felt they had to, with no other way out than to bear the economic pain that comes with an eventual debt correction. The trick is to now ween the economy off of its high dependence on debt, no easy task and quite possibly impossible without increasing that economic pain. They want inflation in profits, but as FedEx (FDX) and General Mills (GIS) recently illustrated, that is not happening. All we are getting is inflation in commodity prices. I believe as short term interest rates are being raised they are doing their best to keep longer term rates in check. It is the great balancing act, the great experiment. "Frankenstein" was also called an experiment." -- John Succo on today's Buzz (position in FDX, GIS)

  • Note the BKX as it flips the switch into Red Dye. It's no doubt being weighed down by the 2% follow through slippage in Bank of America (BAC) but yesterday's break in Citigroup (C) below the 200-day isn't helping matters either.

  • If you listen carefully, you can almost hear the crowd getting thinner into the holiday weekend. Please be conscious of the potential for decreased liquidity and increased volatility.

  • T-minus 48 days until our much awaited Sundance of Finance. A few Minyans have inquired if this is "by the pro's, with the pro's and for the pro's. I'll only say that MiM2, like anything else in life, will be what we make of it. And we're fixin' to make it something truly unique.

  • I'm outie in a few hours so lemme wish you all a healthy and happy holiday session. And before you have a coupla pops and get behind the wheel of a car, please visit my brother Joel for a bit of perspective. Fare ye well into the bell and good luck next week!

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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