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Random Thoughts

By

I will not go quietly!

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  • Baby you can drive my car...

  • Elmer gave the wink on continued (measured) hikes in the context of an economy that's on firm footing. And while he noted the local froth in housing, he was quick to offer that a drop in those home prices wouldn't hurt the economy. Heh?

  • The Minx is choppin' around as traders chew through the text and assimilate these latest inputs. NYSE breadth is 3:2 negative, the financials are hangin' tough (watch the brokers), crude has a 'tude (+1.5%), the dollar is firm (+30 bips), metals are sluggish (silver) and Pledge Farley looks like he's about to fall over. I can't blame him-I get to the office about 6ish and he was already here (sleeping on the couch).

  • I openly wondered on the Buzz if NDX 1500 and DJIA 10,400 was the "easy trade." S&P 1200 is an intuitive "soft stop" for Boo if he wants to bang his drum and rattle n' hum.

  • Is there such a thing as an easy trade?

  • Pledge Farley should be ashamed of himself.

  • Somebody call the Gap Band!

  • Keep an eye on the cyclicals as they edge through the 50-day.

  • Chewing through the rate debate.

  • "NASDAQ 100 (NDX): We'll open the day sitting on point & figure support at 1525. A print of 1520 would give us the first sell signal since April." Kevin Depew on today's Buzz.

  • What a Gas!

  • The American way of life!

  • "The good news regarding the performance of the market over the last several days has been the lack of distribution. MACD measures are starting to roll, and though that may be a problem, we don't have the glaring deficiencies to discredit the market at this point. We have talked about the rapid changes in sentiment that have developed in various asset classes over the year, where participants chase strength and weakness (like everyone else) searching for the big move. Equities are one of the few areas where that sentiment hasn't reached an extreme on the advance. Bonds are now loaded with bulls, a reason we believe Friday's reversal was legitimate, and Copper's new high has brought the bulls back into that industrial metal as has the dollar's recent strength. Sentiment figures are conditional figures (they support bull/bear trends). So rare is it that a sentiment indicator should induce a trade, but they certainly help position size, and make you aware that you are alone in this jungle." Lehman's savvy technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • Wasn't me!

  • Has he SEEN Fish's gut?

  • The other side of Marc Cuban's gold vibe.

  • Check a borrow on dogs?

  • "With short term indicators overbought across the board it was disconcerting to see the market behave poorly the last two days as it reversed intra-day gains. Perhaps this price action, along with the overbought near-term conditions and the fact that the S&P 500 is into resistance at the 1200 level says the market need a little pullback. We realize some traders will "ho hum" this idea, but since we didn't do a good job off of the April low, we figure we should keep swinging to get back on track. We're not looking for anything special here as the S&P is above its upward sloping 50-and 200-day moving averages, but we figure a pullback of a few percent (1160) wouldn't be extraordinary." Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • More curves than Playboy!

  • Downtown David Miller could learn a thing or two from this crew.

  • Mizzou Minyans unite!

  • The Vibe from our good pal Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Research: "The Greenspan testimony has brought all the economists on TV today to talk about the "conundrum." This, of course, refers to Greenspan's testimony that long rates are acting differently this cycle vs. prior cycles and are unusually low. We would like to point out the yield curve and end of the curve may not be acting so differently than prior cycles.

    • We have shown on a number of occasions the Yield Curve is acting similarly to prior mid-cycle movements.
    • We now find that when strictly looking at the 10-year T-bond yield, the rise from low to high yields in this cycle has been almost exact to that of the mid-1990's and very close to the 98-00 cycle.
    • We expect the 10 year T-bond yield to move back toward 4.5%, but wanted to add a little perspective on the topic since the fixed income environment is being depicted as so unique. Based on the move up in yield from the low and the current flattening, this environment may not be as unique as folks think."

  • The Revenge of Sammy.


    R.P.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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