South Bound Saurez
By Todd Harrison Jun 09, 2003 2:48 pm
Good luck into the close and have a most peaceful night!
The clock on the wall's moving slower
My heart it sinks to the ground
And the storm that I thought would blow over
Clouds the light of the love that I found
Well friends, the lazy, hazy days of summer have officially begun. After the requisite weekend rain, it's 80 degrees in the big city and it feels as if a lotta traders have hit the links. For those of us who stuck around, it's quiet is as quiet does, Forrest, and the Minx is grinding her way through another slushy session. Did somebody say "Italian ices?!?"
I wondered aloud during my Random Thoughts if the baton was passed from the "panic" portion of the bullish phase to the "denial" portion of a bearish phase. It's obviously too early to know for sure but critters of all camps will agree that the tape needed a rest. The more important (and potentially profitable) decision we must make is where do we go from here?
There are many frames with which to view the market. The active types will point to the stanky breadth and fugly financials as a red flag into the close. The intermediaries among you can (and will) argue that the Minx ran too far, too fast, and a pause to refresh is healthy. The longer-term types can spend the rest of this session debating the merits of their respective arguments because, quite frankly, today's action is meaningless from an investment standpoint.
Or is it?
As a function of the recent rally, market players are conditioned to brush off bad news. I'm wondering, however, if today's Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE) news will be viewed (in hindsight) as a possible inflection point. I'm not saying that there was any company-specific wrongdoing (I'm not in a position to say and far be it from me to point fingers) but the derivative domino debate may, in fact, be underway. If the specter of disclosure starts to heat up, the financial system -- and, by extension, the financial stocks -- may come under increased scrutiny. Just something to toss on the radar as we collectively find our way.
Looking ahead, Beeks is fairly quiet until the end of the week and, with the exception of a handful of companies/conferences, the catalyst calendar is clean. As such, our trading fate will be determined by the collective psychology, technical levels and structural forces. If we can collectively assimilate those metrics, we'll better navigate our way through the muck.
I've currently got two appendages in my metaphorical fur (50% conviction on the short side) and while my inclination is to give it some room, I'm conscious that the underlying momentum can "spring" anytime. I don't think it's today's business (tapes that are one way all day tend to end that way) but we must note the lower volume (on down days) and uptrends that remain in place. Again, if the tape slips through S&P 945-950 and NDX 1150ish, it'll be a telling sign that strange things might be afoot at the Circle K.
With that said, Fokker and I are trudgin' right along and playin' the game. He's developed a rather annoying snorting habit (following each sneeze) and I'm not quite sure what to do about that. I'll let it slide (at least until he tallies up the baseball poll) as he's a good kid and, well, everybody snorts once in a while. Right?
That's about it from my end, and I'm gonna juggle hats and tickle ticks. I sincerely hope that you all had a profitable day and, if you didn't, that you've got the ability to keep it in perspective. In 20 years, you probably won't remember that last trade you made but chances are, if you spend tonight wisely, you'll create memories that last a lifetime. That sounds like a fairly nice trade to me.
Have a peaceful night.
position in spx
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