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Random Thoughts

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All we can do is the best we can do and operate with the information we have in hand.

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  • Is 6-6-06 a modern day Y2K?

  • I opined this morning that GS $158 is a pretty decent resistance and if she got there, I would likely sell some alongside Mr. Paulson. Alas, that might have been a bit "easy" and the easier trades are few and far between these days.

  • Additional levels of lore? How 'bout XAU 128 and OSX 192, 200-days that haven't been touched since the middle of '05.

  • It's not always a bad thing when the sky cries.

  • My eyes keep wandering back to the relative traction in the banks. While my vibes on this complex are well known, my "trading eyes" respect the effort in the face of crimson bullets. Indeed, if BKX 108 can escape this tape unscathed, we should expect to hear chatter of "positive divergences."

  • Crackberry?

  • "Paper metal players are in control and don't be surprised to see a $601 print today. Killing one bloke means nothing. But hey, sentiment, not fundamentals, are what's driving at present. Lots of physical is gonna be slurped up down here- LOTS. My view remains unchanged: gold at $680 by Bastille Day, dead Zarqawi or not, with physical demand the driver." Laurie McGuirk on today's Buzz

  • Have you been pickin' up some two-sided vibes in the 'Ville? Excellent! Our mission is to provoke thought (rather than shape it) and paint both sides of the trade for ye faithful.

  • While I don't watch the Dow Jones Industrial Average as much as others (I've always felt 30 stocks is a myopic view), please "see" the 200-day toggle at DJIA 10,872.

  • "We continue to expect significant gains following this correction based on a solid fundamental mid-cycle macroeconomic environment with a washed out intermediate-term technical condition that would allow for renewed buying interest. We have a near-term correction target of S&P 1225 and an intermediate target of S&P 1540." Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities

  • I think the witch is on the other foot.

  • Remember when we asked if we would look back at VXO 20 and say DOH? Well, Rae Me, baby, we're right there (VXO 20.5, +20%). And while I'm a big believer in balance, I'm using this spike in volatility to pare a slew of puts.

  • No, Laurie, there won't be any sheep in Vail.

  • When in doubt, wait it out. And if you do, there will be no wouldas, couldas or shouldas. All we can do is the best we can do and operate with the information we have in hand.

  • Point?



    Rhetorical question: How does one hold the view that it is in fact bullish for gold prices if Russian, Chinese and some Middle Eastern central banks are speaking about diversifying their holdings into gold when the last time a major central bank took some action on their gold holdings (the BOE) they sold at precisely the low?

    My point: central banks, as bureaucratic organizations, are usually the last to recognize a trend and act upon it. The fact that central banks are now talking about the attractiveness of gold is just as strong a contrary indicator as it was when Her Majesty's Treasury announced their gold auction program in 1999. One cannot hold the view that this time central banks are good at timing, when their entire history with any and all assets contradict that.

    Scott Reamer

  • Counter-point!



    The central bank doesn't/didn't have the same massive dollar holdings/trade surplus as these "new" guys like Russia, China, etc. The central bank wasn't diversifying, it was just looking for yield. These guys want real money, not IOU's from bankrupt governments.

    Laurie McGuirk

  • And finally, the following Buzz took place between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM:

    Once we had an easy ride
    And always felt the same
    Time was on our side
    And we had everything to gain

    Where's Eddie Van Halen when you need him most? The Thursday brew is a minxy zoo as the wheels are wobblin' on the wagon. I've spent alotta time on the horn this morning with my brethren around the Street and the noodle seems to be constant. At the heart of everyone's matter is a single, simple question: Has the big picture cometh?

    Old school Minyans understand the global caveats and structural smoke. Heck, we've been talkin' about them for the last few years, often during times when the tape would deem them premature. Those in Ojai were given this script although, as is often the case, the timing of the release was out of our hands. Now, as buzz makes its way around the theater, science fiction has morphed into a reality show.

    I'm not smart enough to offer if "this is it" but, as I've communicated, I'm using the carnage to nibble and pick at names I wanna own (not rent). So, while the epitaph is being written in the energy and metal spaces, many of them by the same folks who couldn't own enough at XAU 170ish and OSX 240ish a month ago, I'm going the other way. Hey, I've been there before and odds are, I'll be there again.

    The risk, as we know, is continued liftage in the dollar. And from a "trading tell" standpoint, the breadth continues to warrant caution. Time horizon is a key component of any financial decision so choose wisely and stay disciplined.

    As always, I hope this finds you well.



R.P.

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