By Todd Harrison Jun 08, 2005 11:03 am
Wine tasting? Sign me up!
- Throughout yesterday's Buzz, we discussed the importance of field position when gauging the viability of equity acne. While many indices and sectors looked Afleet, Alex, they stumbled in the home stretch and fell to their knees. That's a caveat in extended tapes with lopsided leans and why it's so very important to define risk and map a proper time horizon. The mechanics of the swing will ultimately outweigh the results of any single at-bat.
- Some gold vibes as we head through the Hump.
- The NYSE breadth is very "snappy" today.
- A few things have crystallized in the past few weeks regarding the Federal Reserve. First, I'm not eating crazy pills-they're just as confused as everyone else when it comes to the economic conundrum and migrating bubbles. The disturbing aspect, at least to me, is that they're already rationalizing the puzzling dynamic. With Elmer opining that (the expected) inverted yield curve "may not mean what it's meant in the past" and his sidekick Guynn offering that it could be "due to a good Fed record," I am at a genuine loss on appropriate verbiage.
- For the record, my view of this dew is pretty straightforward. Legitimate economic growth simply isn't there and the patient (economy), having digested the steroids (stimuli) of years past, is being kept alive by debt and desire. I can't shake the movie Flatliners from my head and I don't think it has anything to do with Julia Roberts or Kevin Bacon.
- What gave it away?
- We recently noted the necessity of an "S's over N's" tape to alleviate some of the four-letter froth via a "rolling rotation." Thus far, the Matador Crowd has to be pleased with the flickering evolution as the Minx has hung tough in the face of the extended status. We're still vulnerable, mind you, but conditions such as this can be worked off via time or price. The longer we slither-and the closer we draw to quarter-end-the better it is for the Hoofy's heroes.
- Are you ready for some football?!?
- Remember the adage that you've gotta be happy with yourself before you're happy with someone else? The same rings true for foreign policy. Until we get our own house in order, we'll never find a happy relationship with China.
- In a word, compression.
- We saw early flow yesterday out of energy and into financials. While the patch felt the heat, the piggies couldn't find their way to the market and remain under the 200-day (BKX 99.60). The brokers, for their part, have a constructive (reverse dandruff) technical pattern but I, for one, have no interest in the long side in this group.
- Wocca wocca wocca wocca...
- Census Check! The weekly Investor's Intelligence sentiment poll is out and Matador City real estate is upticking anew. Bulls have increased to 50.6 (from 47.8), bears have scared to 20.9 (from 25) and the correction (sleep away) camp is at 28.5 (from 27.2).
- And McDonalds forecasts two years of increased appetite?
- There is a certain irony in the fact that wisdom and perspective are often a function of pain and process. There have been some tough times in the past few years--2001 and 2003 come to mind--but not a day passes that I don't feel geniunely blessed to be surrounded by people I love.
- And just like that, with Google down $10, the "bug" disappears from the CNBC ticker.
- "Petroleum inventory numbers came somewhat bullish with oil down 3.09 mmbbls vs. up 250,000 exp, distillates up 1.29 mmbbls vs. up 1.28 mmbbls exp, and gasoline down 31,000 bbls vs. up 1.1 exp. Not real surprised oil inventories decreased given that they generally decline around this time of year as refiners increase gasoline output." Neal Dingmann (of MS Howells fame)on the Buzz
- For the life of me, I can't figure out why Pepe decided to stay in a hotel rather than Chez Harrison?
- We called an audible and held Succofest last night as John, Scotto, Pepe and I chewed through a slew of fresh fish and talked tape. The conversation shifted to the upcoming Minyans in the Mountains retreat and the importance of building networks, sharing experiences and enjoying our journey. If I sound excited about this summer Festivus, it's because I truly am. We share a virtual experience each day but this, my friends, puts faces to the names and smiles on those faces!
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