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Random Thoughts



  • A graphical illustration of the banks as they poke at the 200-day.

  • By the time you get to where you wanna be, the journey will have already ended.

  • If Dallas Cowboy Rich Fisher was a loose cannon, the FOMC hierarchy would have likely reined him in by now. This adds credence to the notion that the Fed will start cooing soon (read: adopt a more dovish posture) but the reasons likely aren't a function of confidence in the economic expansion. The flattish yield curve, in my view, is a more telling causation of the late inning relief.

  • To the spoils go the oil.

  • As long as the mechanics of the swing are sound, you'll eventually find your hits.

  • Chutzpah!

  • Yo Yo Yo, keep an eye on the homies as the HGX trickles to an all-time high. Also note the mid-cap index (MDY) as they're also at their best levels ever.

  • After spiking the Kool-Aid and handing keys to underage drivers, how can Elmer not expect accidents in the financial intersection?

  • Last night, while watching the eastern conference finals with Pepe, a commercial aired for AIG talking about trust, safety and investing in "financial futures." We both started laughing hysterically at the same exact time.

  • A pension mention.

  • There seems to be a few competitive fires brewing in front of Minyan Golf. I can't duff to save my skin but that's alright--I'll simply focus my attention on the sweet revenge that is Minyan Softball!

  • Fleck's Rap!

  • We mentioned the "flow" that we saw earlier today (out of energy and into financials) and we've discussed the reverse dandruff in Duke & Duke (XBD). And, as discussed above, the all-important piggies are now poking at their 200-day moving average (BKX 99.60)

  • The Chinese auto torture.

  • A sniff of today's tea leaves finds NYSE breadth 3:1 positive, the semis firm (in front of a slew of mid-quarters and under SOX 450 resistance), the small caps chippin' in (+1%) the tenor Pavarotti. With that said, remember the Alamo, er, field position as we're still uber-overbought and susceptible to trap doors. Chicken Little is getting fricasseed, I know, but perspective is necessary in the constant struggle to balance risk with potential reward.

  • It's not you-everyone struggles through their journey at times.

  • Vibes from Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Research:

    • Each day we track the number of stocks in the NASDAQ 100 Index to determine the percentage that are overbought or oversold using a 14-period stochastic oscillator. We only talk about the readings when an extreme is reached - and today is one of those instances.
    • Every market watcher appears to be expecting a near-term correction given the recent 10% move higher in the NASDAQ Composite Index (NAZ) in a straight line. This move higher has caused the percentage of oversold components to drop under 10% for the past 14 sessions as of 6/6/05 (because so many stocks are overbought). Since 2001, this is rare and only happens after the NAZ reached an extreme near-term overbought condition.
    • There are only 6 prior occurrences since June 2001 (when we began tracking data) of the oversold percentage being <10 for 14 days or greater. The average gain following the END of the string of low oversold components was 10% over 17 days. When you strip out the best case of +23%, the average gain was 7% over 15 sessions.
    • The end of the string marked the LOW day in 5 of the 6 occurrences. In other words, only once did such a string lead to a correction, and that correction was quickly reversed. The history of this indicator suggests the 1% drop on 6/3/05 could be the correction everyone is waiting for from a trading basis.

  • Weight! Are you ready to join the Minyan faithful for the annual health kick? Six weeks, percentage weight loss, helping kids and having fun. That-and squiring that tire away from our bellies-is plenty of motivation to play along at home!

  • Don't they have a cream for this?

  • So, General Motors (GM) is slashing 25,000 jobs and boosting capital expenditures by a billion beans? I'm no auto analyst (or pension expert) but that doesn't seem to be very "proactive."


  • Maybe Andy Dufresne wasn't lying after all?

  • I'm being told by a sell-side broker that they're seeing a rotation out of energy and into financials. Please keep an eye on that XBD please. Randy and Mortimer are trying to turn the machines back on.

  • Hard eights and Six reasons.

  • What's your special purpose, Navin?

  • Granted, James is about as smart as they come.

  • CSN is coming to the Beacon Theater August 1st and 2nd. Noice!

  • Meanwhile, back in Red Dye...

  • "As everyone talks about technical break-outs and massive liquidity (and I am not disputing this), almost no one is talking about the most curious and possibly dangerous of events. The yield curve continues to flatten: the two-ten spread is now down to a mere 34 basis points, down from 47 ten days ago. This pattern is very similar to 1999-2000 (although that occurred at higher rates than today's). The yield curve actually inverted after stocks crashed. This is a very clear message in today's "conundrum" economic world. After several years of negative to zero real interest rates ("free" money), the economy is limping along and the yield curve is now inverting." -- John Succo on today's Buzz.

  • You're a Hussman. No, you're a Hussman!

  • Please keep an eye on Yahoo! (YHOO) and eBay (EBAY) as they flip the switch to Red Dye. After this morning's Google (GOOG) "bug" on CNBC, I wouldn't be shocked to see that gaggle join the master betas on the dark side.

  • Iceberg, Rosenberg...

  • I remember going to Four & 20 pies as a kid but that's about it.

  • The S&P:VIX ratio is approaching levels previously associated with market tops. Pure fyi...

  • If you're on the fence for Minyans in the Mountains II, go with your gut and follow your heart. I promise that you won't be disappointed!

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