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Random Thoughts


The mechanics of the swing are more important than the results of the at-bat.

  • We've spoken about the evolution of Wall Street research here, and again at MIM2. Fulcrum Global Partners is the latest casualty of this subtle shift as information delivery finds its way through the crossroads of regulation and technology.

  • The conditional elements of further slippage are still in place--bunk breadth, higher dollar, fugly homies, an apocalyptic calendar--but IF (huge if) Hoofy is gonna run, these are necessary tests following yesterday's mess.

  • Turnaround Tuesday? It could happen, wabbit, but other than the technical tangent, there are precious few supportive elements. Be that as it may, I've peeled out of some more piggy puts as a function of discipline and nibbled on some merchandise down here (with tight stops). Hay. Sunshine. You know.

  • Yo, don't hate the player, hate the game! We've grown quite used to jaw boning from the Fed but, taking a step back, Boom Boom was pretty forthright yesterday. That, to me, is a step in the right direction regardless of the near-term pain it might provoke.

  • Do As I say, not as I dress! I firmly believe that Pepe's 5 Things is the best read on Wall Street. But despite his poetic prose and cunning wit, we've really gotta work on his wardrobe. I mean honestly, if we spin him around fast enough, we'll have to hire Deney Terrio!

  • What's the "right stop?" That's subjective to your particular style and risk appetite. To each, their own.

  • Summer Bies, makes you feel fine! Susan Bies, on behalf of the Fed, is on the tape offering that "we don't exactly know when to stop raising rates" and the "increases are still feeding their way into the economy."

  • Historical Rhyme and Reason? This is a link to an interesting chart comparing the track of actual, 30-day SPX volatilities from 1968-1975 to July 2000 to present.

  • Vibes from John "if it ain't" Roque (don't fix it) of Natexis Bleichroeder: "Looking at the Amex Broker-Dealer Index (XBD), the corrective phase has thus far looked like this: Pullback to 50-day moving average… mini bounce… sharp decline through the 50-day moving average to the 200-day moving average… mini bounce…We're looking for a decline through the 200-day moving average and believe the XBD has risk to the 175 level. From October 2002 through the late April '06 high the XBD was up 280%. From its 2004 low through the late April 06 high the XBD was up 110%. From its 2005 low through the late April 06 high the XBD was up 82%. Does this sector owe investors anything? We don't think so. Though down 13% from its late April high we believe the sector has risk to the 175 area. We'd rather be reducing these stocks on any bounce than adding to long positions. Momentum has hooked lower and is FAR from oversold territory.

  • Trade. Don't hope.

  • Your Delta Tau Chi pledge name is Hoover! As such be on the alert for vacuums on either side of obvious technical levels (such as S&P 1260). And please remember that the S&P 200-day has been tested SEVEN times during this latest malaise.

  • "Note as well that the DX/Y was able to hold 83.75 yesterday, DeMark (buy) price completions remain intact there, and for the euro the opposite is the case with valid sell price completions intact." Pepe Depew on today's Buzz

  • Brazil is getting waxed for 3%. Somebody tell Andy Stitzer!

  • Confused? Tired? Lookin' pa nub in all the wrong places? Come join us in Vail for a Festivus of the highest order. It's smart, fun, family oriented and extremely insightful. I kid you not; MIM3 is a vacation that will pay for itself many times over.

  • R.P.
position in metals, energy, financials

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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