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Random Thoughts


Don't mess with the bull, mister, you'll get the horns!


  • The recent rally is the only inflation I've seen in a long time.

  • The capitulatory process during an exhaustion phase is the same during meltage and spikage.

  • The housing stocks have carried out a lot of traders. That's too bad - -anytime somebody suffers, regardless of the side of the market, is unfortunate.

  • I've been doing some sniffing on the sizable negative gamma influences in the market and the perception is that it's "out there." Dealers who are sold out-of-the money calls (last month) to facilitate customers, are being forced to buy more of the underlying instrument as their (short) delta increases. If and when the market reverses lower, they'll be forced to SELL more as prices drop (as the delta on their short calls decreases).

  • Professor John Succo will make his Minyanville debut today. I've know Succ for 13 years and I've never met a sharper derivatives trader (or a nicer guy). Welcome aboard John!

  • Is the retail group a source of funds today?

  • The multiple six figure QQQ call buyer the last few days will be seen as a key tell if (big if) a turn is close at hand.

  • The PPH (Pharmaceutical HOLDRs) confirmed the point & figure breakout at 80.

  • The longer the tape holds, the less chance there is of a reversal.

  • This is quite obviously the "blow off" phase of the recent rally (denial/migration/panic), the question now becomes how much breath the Minx has left. Why do I say that? Look at a chart of the biotechs and brokers, it's pretty self-explanatory.

  • Will it prove to be a "healthy" pullback or something bigger? Hard to tell, but let's worry about that when the time comes. Remember, when EVERYONE (bulls and bear) wants to buy pullbacks, it'll self-fulfill until it doesn't. At that point, and only at that point, it will be viewed as a fly trap.

  • While I've taken a few days off here and there, I haven't taken a full week off since New Year's. As such, I'm planning on heading to the 'Zona desert for a little spiritual refocusing. The likely timing is the week after next. Saddle up Sammy!

  • The big cap biotechs (Amgen (AMGN:Nasdaq) and Biogen (BGEN:Nasdaq)) and housing stocks (leaders on the way up) have taken a hard right turn. Rotation... or a heads up?

  • This first "test" has started to fill the opening gaps. However, the breadth remains constructive thus far.

  • Delores!

  • Emotion is the enemy when trading.

  • Hey Lappy, I can't believe that Vaccarino would say that to you in front of Jen!

  • "C'mon, it's Czechoslovakia! We zip in, we pick 'em up, we zip right out again! We're not going to Moscow. It's Czechoslovakia! It's like we're going into Wisconsin."

  • It was great to see Dr. Fleckenstein (it's FleckenSTEIN) make his Minyanville debut yesterday.

  • The market won't turn until the financials give it up.

  • When's the last time you actually bought a salami?

  • If you don't want to use prices to your advantage (buy lower, sell higher), it's a trade and NOT an investment.

  • There's nothing more important than your health.
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