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Random Thoughts


Good traders know how to make money. Great traders know how to take a loss.

  • Our good friend Emmanuelle, who is my fiancé's close friend and one of my best pal's main squeeze, asked me at dinner last night to impress upon Minyans to buy this month's Complex Magazine, where she graces the cover. Emm is good peeps and assures me that this season's Entourage is "juicy" on alotta levels. Party on Sloan and we'll see you in Vail!

  • That is, of course, if we get through 06-06-06 tomorrow!

  • Natexis Bleichroeder sage--and MIM3 panelist--John "if it ain't" Roque (don't fix it) pubbed a piece this morning that highlighted the upside potential in corn (currently $2.57/bushel, target $4) and wheat (currently $4/bushel, target $5.83). Eat your heart out, Mr.Valentine, as John was bullish on silver when it was still a hat size!

  • As the Monday's play out, I've tightened my risk profile a bit and pared some of my longs (Goldcorp, Pan American Silver) and, to keep my balance, the size of my shorts (JP Morgan). I've still got a bevy of "stock specific" situations on both sides of my pad that are too small (in market cap, not position size) to share.

  • Why is the Boom Boom style tightening? Discipline, as we're smack dab in the middle of the range (S&P 1246-1300) and I'm accumulating dry powder so I can unleash the hounds when William Wallace sees the whites of their eyes.

  • Just remember, you're a Munson!

  • Please note the big cap brokers, flagged earlier, as they giggle higher in synch. Mr. Goldman is leading the charge and has dragged Bear, Lehman and Mother Merrill with him. XBD 223, from where we failed, should serve as an initial level of resistance.

  • Denver area Minyans, please be advised that I'll be in your hood on June 22 for lunch with the Colorado Financial Advisors (CFA) and the American Association of Individual Investor's (AAII) local chapter. Click here if you would like more information on the upcoming gaggles.

  • "Residential real estate now represents a record 38% of outstanding bank credit. Credit spreads and delinquency rates are much more important to bank profitability than a steep yield curve in this environment. History shows that credit strains actually come to the fore after the Fed pauses." John Succo on today's Buzz.

  • The flickering ticks are settlin' in with market internals hangin' 2:1 negative.

  • Potential perkiness, Samantha Baker style, can be found in the big cap brokers, select retailers (SHLD,KSS) and some hardware such as IBM and SunMicro.

  • T-minus 53 hours until the Minyanville staff meeting and Mr. Farley's mohawk. This is gonna be fun.

  • ...proper sector and stock selection, combined with the ability to manage the risk (read: don't let ANYTHING go very far against you), has been, and should continue to be, the secret to successful investment results going forward." MIM3 Keynote and Raymond James sage Jeff "as good as it gets Saut in his Monday missive. I concur with Mr. Saut. Good traders know how to make money. Great traders know how to take a loss.

  • "In DeMark and PnF terms, the OSX and HUI have patterns that are virtually identical to the SPX and NDX. That is one of the reasons I believe the structural bear market (that many said went away last year) is reasserting itself." Pepe Depew on today's Buzz.

  • I hear ya Pep, but I'm "trading around" a core long in Weatherford as we toggle into stagflation.

  • R.P.
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position in gss, wft, paas, jpm, sunw, ibm
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