When the SP futes open higher by at least .75% (as was the case today) on Payroll Friday, there were 23 occurrences. The day's close was positive in all but one. But where does the SP close relative to the open price? The day's close was higher than the open in just 12 of the 23.
What does this mean? History suggests a higher close but we're unlikely to get close significantly above or below the open price.
Here's a few conflicting sidenotes: If we isolate the occurrences since the March 2000 top, then the close is below the opening price in 7 of 10. However, if we stipulate that on the prior day the SP futes never traded positive, then there were just three occurences and the close above the open in all three with the lowest intraday low just +.50%.
Past performance does not indicate future results
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