Freaky Friday Potpourri!
Each Minyan has a unique time horizon and risk profile...
You don't have to look far or listen hard to hear about the rally heard round the world. I was more observant than active as I noodled both sides of the ride and didn't make hay in the sunshine. Snaps to Pepe for his constructive stance as his indicators pointed to Matador City, a rather nice feel considering his big picture beliefs.
While hindsight provides clarity and validation, the reasons assigned to the upside rhyme are a bit flawed. And lest you think that Big Ben pulled a dove out of his magic hat, you need only compare yesterday's script with the his testimony on February 15th.
While I missed the meat of the move (paring many of my longs into the morning giggle), I'll offer that the 20% drip in the volatility proxy (VXO), the "all clear" technical siren (above the S&P 200-day) and the mass dumpage of puts into the close has increased--not decreased--the risk to the tape.
That may not be today's--or next week's--business given the Kate Moss thinned trading ranks will begrudgingly man the top-tier turrets. Factor that into your risk profile--particularly if you'll be sunnin' your buns.
I'm pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty sure that some big-time funds have gone belly up and while that may be a non-event (containment), it's something to monitor in a derivative-laden financial fabric.
My sense is that "markage" was yesterday's business and fund managers won't tempt fate on the last day of reckoning. That doesn't mean we can't run for more roses---particularly if the greenback, which is off an early 60 bips, continues to slip. Dollar devaluation...or asset class deflation. Minyans should know that story well.
As you know--and despite some latent guilt--I'm heading to
Marbella for a wedding tonight (not mine, not yet). As such, I've removed the meat of my risk with the exception of the "bare essentials and core cores." Included in that mix is some autumn puts in the financials which, as it stands, have yet to mount their hump at BKX 108. Given the meltage in vols and the defined risk nature of the bet, I don't mind keeping some of those on against my remaining longs.
When I return to my turret (the wedding is next Sunday night and I'll be back Monday afternoon), there will be exactly one month remaining until our highly anticipated Minyans in the Mountains financial retreat. While we've pretty much sold out the Vail Cascade (a handful of rooms remain), we've made arrangements for alternative lodging for interested Minyans. We've got some snazzy surprises up our sleeves---things I'm not allowed to discuss at present--and I'll simply say that it'll be well worth the journey! And yes, you have my word.
Mailbag Grab Bag!
I find your views and trading ideas very helpful and look forward to all of your "Buzz 'n Banter." It was unfortunate for viewers that you missed the second biggest rally of the year. Rather than telling us that you were flattish because of your travel plans, it would have been more helpful to us if you would have discussed why we should be long for a short term rally. I know you gave both the Hoofy and Boo views but, even when the fed "said" they were leaning less restrictive than consensus, you still were looking for Boo to appear s-t. Perhaps it is a function of your risk aversion because of the macro but your expertise is also the s-t movements. It is disappointing that you didn't call this move and encourage us to ride Hoofy like
I am human. It happens. I own it and will not make excuses. With that said, MV has never been about calling the market or telling Minyans what to do. Over the years--and over the last few months in particular--I'm fairly certain that Minyans have benefited from our collective vibes and shared eyes. I will not apologize for 'missing the second biggest rally of the year' as I think that's somewhat unfair--nobody can be expected to call the tape every day in a world with so many variables and an ever-changing landscape. I did, as you say, point to reasons why asset classes could continue to swell but the fact that I didn't play should have little bearing on your decision making process.
We pride ourselves on our market acumen and have made some fantastic "calls" over the years. BUT, we have NEVER told our readers what to do. Each Minyan has a unique time horizon and risk profile and, as such, it's impossible to know what's 'right' for them (you). Yes, I missed much of the rally but I'm not beating myself up for it--that's wasted energy. And, while it's true that I flattened 'all but my core cores,' I can't honestly say that I woulda been loaded up on the long side if I wasn't taking this much needed respite. Again, no excuses---just pure communication--as I know you're a new Minyan and it's important that you understand why we're here.
I may ask you for some white light soon. My Shelley is going under the knife for her Cancer in early July. As you know, the flickering ticks just don't seem to matter sometimes. Thanks to you, the Queen, the profs in the 'Ville and fellow Minyans, I am prepared for the next leg of my journey. Today I look at Wall Street and yawn. This will go down as a "big day" and the monkeys will go mad...but it doesn't seem to matter as it once did.
It's because of the 'Ville--and only the 'Ville--that I am well positioned in my metals and energy, good dividend paying stocks, and have enough dry powder to put to work when the time comes. More importantly, I can focus on my Shelley as I have to get her through this by hook or by crook. I am not quite sure about this Mercury Retrograde thing, a fly in the ointment? Why do I think "The Queen" has a recipe for making it through retrograde?
Take Care Pal,
First and foremost, you've got all the white light we can muster here at MVHQ. As it typically takes something "bad" to usher in a spate of perspective, I share your fare with thy faithful as a dose of reality. I'm sure alotta folks left their desk yesterday wishing they made more or lost less. If our greatest loss is on our bottom line, we should consider ourselves quite fortunate. Yes, that might sound trite to some. But for those who've lost someone close or are nursing someone sick, these words ring loud and true.
On the stock stuff, and as I said to Minyan Al above you, that's all you brother. We're happy to chat on what we're doing (and how and why) with hopes that we provoke--not shape--thought. If the Minx was down a deuce yesterday, I certainly don't want to be held responsible for your positions. As it was up, and as you made a few shekels, you should allow yourself the gratification of a job well done. And I'm not sure about the Queen's recipe on Mercury Retrograde but I, for one, hope it doesn't translate to Spanish!
I am a fairly successful retail broker serving individuals. I was reading Real Money daily but found it to have way too many articles to follow so I dropped it. Do you have any brokers like me that recommend your site? If so, can they give me an idea of what they find most useful on your site? Thanks for your time.
It's very simple my brother---the Buzz & Banter. That's your Swiss army knife and you can shape, filter and craft the content proposition as per your needs. There's a free two-week trial and while the holiday week will be slow and slower, I wholeheartedly suggest that you give it a test drive when we're back in the saddle!
Also, if you really want to experience a condensed and potent dose of the very best that Minyanville has to offer, I would highly recommend taking a good look at Minyans in the Mountains III. It's....well, it's special.
Thanks--and have a fantastic holiday!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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