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Random Thoughts


Trade smart--don't just trade for the sake of trading.


  • The world's youngest parents were 8 and 9 and lived in China in 1910.

  • Fixed income is firmer as the dollar index squalors 45 bips lower. The metals continue to trade with a bid although, truth be told, I'm not very trusting of this metal leg higher (yet). Scotto wrote a noice educational piece yesterday (before the smelting) that maps out a potentially tough technical road.

  • 40% of all people polled said they peek inside the medicine cabinet while at parties.

  • The VXO, which dipped into the mid-thirteens last Wednesday, has rallied 18% into today's Elmerfest. While the potential for further vol slippage certainly exists, it remains my humble opinion that an outsized move will shake up the mojo. That's not a directional call, per se, but a view that a tradable disconnect exists between what is and what's perceived to be.

  • It's an exciting time in the city of critters as we have our kick-ass Minyan Mountain Retreat August 19-21 in Crested Butte (If you haven't sniffed it out, please do so--it's gonna be a tremendous time!) and we're officially in motion on the Critter's Choice Awards. We're looking at November 18th but won't "officially" announce the date until the venue is locked (it is already reserved).

  • I very much like the metals as a long-term relative (substitute) dollar play. In the near-term, however, their price performance is dependent on liquidity and potential rotations.

  • A tale of two tapes. Look for the Minx to change her face after Elmer takes today's mic. I will remind ye faithful that the first move is typically the false move immediately after the announcement.

  • In Scotland, a new game was invented. It was entitled "Gentlemen Only, Ladies Forbidden".... and thus the word GOLF entered into the English language.

  • The ability of the BKX to break 96 or break out through 98 will tell us all we need to know about stocks. A 15 minute conversation with Fokker will tell us all we need to know about women.

  • Angel Jones of Toronto, 27, was convicted of aggravated assault against his girlfriend -- specifically, biting off most of her nose in a rage. He admitted the nose was in his mouth but claimed that due to her using weight-loss medication, her nose had become brittle, and that it just fell off. [Toronto Star]

  • The NDX stochastics are toppier than the S&P stochastics as a function of the recent relative outperformance. It should be noted that the BKX stochastics are actually closer to buy signals than sell signals.

  • If you're not getting it you're missing out. It's free, it's fun, and you get some useful market info for good measure. E-mail my boy Rob Fraim to get on the distribution list.

  • Please take the time to read Professor Succo's piece from yesterday. It's not to be missed!

  • The next few days will be a bone crusher for yours truly. I have Professor-to-be Rich Gula coming in for lunch (score!), the critters and I will be penning our first CBS MarketWatch column this afternoon (Minyans will have full access after it prints on Thursday), an after-close conference call and a subsequent dinner meeting. Tomorrow will be more of the same as I juggle a lunch, two on-the-bell meetings and an uber-important dinner. After that, I will be dragging my sorry bones and remaining hair to Jamaica for a quick (and very much needed) respite. The next six months are gonna rock and roll and a little gas will go a long way.

  • Neal Glassman--please don't leave your walker in the middle of the aisle. It's just not right.

  • Take a deep breath when Elmer exhales and please, Minyans, put limits on those orders! The last thing you want is an unpleasant fill.

  • The RTH (retail holders) continue to trade (marginally) below the 200-day support (now resistance).

  • Diggin' the critters? Please help support the 'Ville by taking the time to spread the word to your firm, family and friends. They would be very much appreciated!

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