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Straw Hat


Here comes Beeks!


Keep on rollin'
Just a mile to go
Keep on rollin' my old buddy
You're movin' much too slow

(Grateful Dead)

Good morning and welcome back for the final track. The holiday week will come to a close after Hoofy and Boo digest some payrolls. All eyes are on Beeks as he steps to the stage and readies to turn a minxy new page. "The bears seem to think that we'll see a surprise," said Sammy the snake in a critter reprise, "but they've been so busy looking for flies that it's clouded their vibe and shadowed their eyes!" Can the bovine continue to climb up the hill or will Boo and his crew put the bulls on the grill? We've got one more day and it's sure to fulfill so roll up our sleeves for a romp in the 'Ville!

The great debate is all the rage as we stand in a circle and take aim at the moving target. The Matador Crowd, down for the year but closing in quick, has used the thin tape to their advantage and squeezed the bears as they stared at the structural smoke. There's no doubt that they've impressed onlookers with their moxie and muscle-results don't lie and the action speaks for itself. What remains to be seen is whether this move is sustainable and which forest will echo with laughter in the months ahead.

I'm picking up a growing vibe in the street that we've begun the "sharp, hard" rally that will take us into autumn and put the mother of all tops in. While I'm careful not to respond to a limited sample set, the higher prices of late have opened the minds and mouths of Wall Street prognosticators. I've learned a few things over the years-one of which is humility and another is respect. The task at hand, at least for me, is to view the dew through a lens that's consistent with my big picture beliefs while trying not to miss opportunities on the path to profitability.

In the interest of full disclosure, I know my strengths and I'm conscious of my shortcomings when it comes to trading. I'm typically early in "seeing" things and I'm painfully aware that I tend to underperform in momentum driven tapes. The trick to the trade-and half the battle-is to identify which approach suits a particular environment. There will be times to fade 'em, opportunities to 'stick and move' and other junctures when scaling into (and trading around positions) is a suitable stylistic approach. And, of course, there's the discipline to know when to simply step aside and await an advantageous risk/reward.

We power up today's pup with the tape extended, performance anxiety kicking in (quarter-end is around the corner) and alotta two-sided agendas in play. I have little doubt that more than a few gorillas are "caught" and how they react (unwind) will impact the near-term price action. For my part, and consistent with the above mentioned discipline, I've choked up on my short-term risk bat and will dutifully read the daily tea leaves. Old school Minyans know that I pride myself on adding value but I'll never manufacture an opinion. The stakes are too high and, in the end, I'll never force risk (or content) when I can't find an edge.

Good luck today.

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