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Intraday Flash

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Summary:


Given the leading indicator tendencies of the Semiconductor sector (for both the economic cycle as well as investors' willingness to take risk (beat, valuation, etc.), we're updating our technical analysis on the SOX thanks to an important price pattern that has taken shape in the last two sessions. Specifically, prices have now moved impulsively off the 5/28 peak and in so doing have overlapped the 470 level, which has considerably weakened the prospect that a bullish intermediate term trend reversal took place at the 5/3 lows. Given the impulsive decline from the 5/28 highs and the overlap of 470, a more bearish intermediate term interpretation is now the highest probability that calls for a new low beneath the 5/3 low of 433. The next several sessions price action will help confirm or deny this possibility. For the short term however, we can expect the impulse wave down from 5/28 highs to correct upward to Fibonacci resistance in the 474-481 area before another impulse wave down that carries 5% or greater below whatever upper resistance level is achieved in the next session or two. Caution may be warranted from a 3-wave move toward 474-481 for a move to at least 452 if not to a new swing low.

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