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Streaks and Payrolls


Here's some historicals to digest


With yesterday's lower close, the ND futures ended an impressive run of 8 consecutive days without closing lower. In the past, have streaks like this resulted in a top or a sign of underlying strength? I've mentioned before there were just 10 occurrences of at least 7 consecutive days without closing lower. For those dates, I took the date the streak ended and then looked out 10 and 20 days. The ND was higher 10 days later in all but one of the occurrences. The results are summarized below. I will point out, however, that all but one of the occurrences were during the heart of the bull market from '96 to '00. Past performance does not indicate future results.

Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) provides a mid-quarter update today. Their comments typically occur on the day before payrolls. In the table below, I summarized the recent performance of the SP futures on the day before payrolls and then highlighted the days that corresponded to Intel's update. The SP closed higher on the last four Intel updates and higher in 11 of the last 14 days before payrolls.

I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge that the above statistics contradict my personal view of today's trade. I'll simply point out that last month the SP futes opened down by more than .60% and closed down .80%. But I wanted to share these facts with you. Remember that past performance does not indicate future results.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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