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Fading Traces


Good luck into the close!


"Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That's the other guy's problem. Nothing you have ever experienced will prepare you for the unlimited carnage you are about to witness. Superbowl, World Series -- they don't know what pressure is. In this building, it's either kill or be killed. You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One moment you're up half a mil in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me?"

--Louis Winthorpe III, Trading Places

Well Ophelia, it took a coupla tries but Minyan Hal Eddins finally stepped up and won today's trivia quiz. Paul Gleason, who played Principle Dick Vernon in The Breakfast Club, also starred as Clarence Beeks in Trading Places. When he's not busy securing the orange crop report, he often helps the critters out with the economic calander in Minyanville. Looking good, Billy Ray. Feeling good, Hal Eddins!

Shortly after our last post, the Minx decided that she wanted try and put those fluxy innuendos to rest. The resulting action isn't a barn burner but, quite honestly, drying paint is more exciting than the midday action was. If we're to look at our screens as a market of stocks and not a stock market, IBM (IBM:NYSE) continues to take center stage with it's drippy slip. The fact that it hasn't "spilled" to the rest of the tape is indicative of one of two things: Either the underlying tenor is really constructive or complacency abounds and it's providing an ample opportunity (to make sales).

The chatter of a "surprise" rate cut continues to make the rounds and that could have something to do with the firm tone. While the little bear on my right shoulder would view an Elmer cameo with skepticism (what does he see and what good would it do?), I'm trying to wrap my arms around what everyone else would think. Chances are the first move would be higher but once it digests, will that provide an even better fade trade? Just thinkin' out loud as we collectively edge our way through the muck.

During this morning's steadiness, it felt as if the Minx was gonna make a run for yesterday's highs and really freak out the bears. It could still happen, I suppose, but the proof will likely lie with the pudding. During this recent rip, the inability to "get them down" has ushered in a fresh batch of buyers. If (big if) the rally's getting exhausted, that dynamic will shift to "can't get 'em up." How will you know when that occurs? When the tape is lower, naturally!

Quiet is as quiet does, Forrest, as it just continues to continue. Please know that young Fokker is NOT in a cabaret show, I was simply taking some creative liberties and having fun with the kid. The truth is that he does an awesome job and is an invaluable part of the team. There's no amusement in that, however, and as such, I'll continue to jibe him with good natured ribbin'.

Finally, and in closing, I want to quickly circle back to a comment I made yesterday regarding Sept. 11. My point is discussing that fateful day isn't to bring anybody down. Quite the contrary, I think it's very important that we remember what happened. The only good thing that came of that day is our ability to gain perspective and realize what's important in life. The next time you're stressing over a trade, remind yourself of what true loss is and be thankful for what we've got. Before you realize it, we'll be wondering where it went.

Have a peaceful night.
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