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Five Things You Need to Know: Nothing, Juvenile Delinquency, Daisy Dukes, Stiff Punishment, Planet of the Apes?


What you need to know (and what it means)!


Minyanville's Five Things You Need to Know to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street:

1. Today: "A Show About Nothing."

The calm before the storm?

  • There are no Fed speakers ahead of the FOMC meeting beginning at 2:30.
  • There are absolutely no economic releases from either the U.S. or Canada today.
  • Weekly oil statistics are due at 10 a.m., but otherwise today is a day about nothing.
  • We asked Minyanville Professor Jason Roney if there were any interesting analogs on the horizon given the FOMC announcement tomorrow and the upcoming holiday week.
  • "There's nothing super compelling from our a.m. analogs," he said. "But here are some random notes:
    (1) Hardly worth mentioning but when the FOMC occurs one day before month-end the results were mixed on both the day of the meeting and into month-end. But I would note the average downside was much greater than the upside.
    (2) For the June FOMC the SP futures opened higher 75% of the time and closed higher 62.5% of the time.
    (3) There's not much of an upside bias for June month-end in general as the SP finished higher 66.67% on the day before month-end and closed up just 45.83% of the time on the last day of June.
    (4) Over the last 10 FOMC meetings, the SP was mixed on the day before, closing down 7 of the last 10 meeting days, and closing up 6 of 10 days after.
  • "What I continue to find interesting," Roney said. "Unless the S&P 500 trades above 1258 or below 1230 today, we will have 9 consecutive days inside the 10 day-ago range. That's never happened. Calm before the storm, I suspect."

2. Juvenile Delinquency?

According to the American Bankers Association's Consumer Credit Delinquency Bulletin, consumer loan delinquencies was mixed during the first quarter of 2006.

  • The ABA CCDB is a quarterly survey of more than 300 banks on the percentage of consumer loans that are 30 days or more past due.
  • After dropping in back-to-back quarters, credit card late payments increased to 4.40 percent at the beginning of 2006, from 4.27 percent in the previous quarter.
  • The Composite Ratio, which tracks late payments in eight types of closed-end installment loans, fell to 1.94 percent from 2.02 percent of accounts at the end of 2005.
  • Personal loan delinquencies dipped to 1.81 percent from 1.97 percent, a record low.
  • But past-due payments on home equity lines of credit increased to 0.55 percent from 0.51 percent, the fifth consecutive quarterly increase.
  • Perhaps this form of delinquency is in its most juvenile stages?

3. Daisy Putting Up Her Dukes

While Washington DC and much of the eastern seaboard attempts to dry out, at least a third of the nation, including important farmland in the middle of the country, is experiencing what could turn into one of the worst droughts in U.S. history, according to the USA Today.

  • Texas, Arizona, Louisiana and Mississippi are among the states hardest hit by the exceptionally dry conditions, the newspaper reported.
  • Crops affected by the drought conditions include cotton, soybean and wheat.
  • The newspaper says beef prices have remained relatively low this year because farmers are...

    ahem... er...
    slaughtering... (sorry!) herds earlier than usual.
  • However, U.S. Department of Agriculture Chief Economist Keith Collins predicts in the coming months beef will likely rise when supply is lower, the newspaper reported.
  • Interestingly, on a technical basis feeder cattle (basis Thomson Financial continuous chart) shows a DeMark TD-Sequential sell signal registering on the daily. The trend is strong, however, and note the prior sell signal on May 30 was simply a primary trend interruption.
  • Live cattle (basis Thomson Financial continuous chart) shows a DeMark TD-Sequential sell setup registering.

4. Limp Rushbaugh?

According to the Associated Press, talk radio personality Rush Limbaugh was detained by customs officials Monday after a prescription bottle of Viagra in someone else's name was discovered in his luggage.

  • Limbaugh, returning from vacation in the Dominican Republic, was detained for more than three hours by customs officials at Palm Beach International Airport Monday.
  • Customs officers reportedly confiscated 29 Viagra pills in his luggage because the prescription was in someone else's name.
  • The radio host was released without being charged, Forbes reported.
  • Limbaugh's doctor had prescribed the Viagra, but it was "labeled as being issued to the physician rather than Mr. Limbaugh for privacy purposes," Limbaugh's lawyer said, according to the AP.
  • Limbaugh joked about the incident in his show yesterday, saying Customs officials didn't believe him when he said he got the pills at the Clinton Library.
  • Ho ho. Funny. However, we're not entirely convinced erectile dysfunction medication is something one could associate with President Clinton since the warning on the label clearly states that "assistance" lasting longer than four hours requires immediate medical attention.

5. Planet of the Apes

Today, the Spanish parliament will consider a resolution granting apes the same rights to life and freedom as humans.

  • The resolution was introduced by Francisco Garrido, a bioethicist and member of Spain's Green Party.
  • If voted through, it will make Spain the first national legislature to give such rights to non-humans.
  • Speaking in support of the resolution, Dr. Zaius noted, "Why, man is a nuisance. He eats up his food supply in the forest, then migrates to our green belts and ravages our crops. The sooner he is exterminated, the better. It's a question of simian survival.'"
  • Cornelius added, "Beware the beast man, for he is the Devil's pawn. Alone among God's primates, he kills for sport or lust or greed. Yea, he will murder his brother to possess his brother's land. Let him not breed in great numbers, for he will make a desert of his home and yours. Shun him, for he is the harbinger of death."
  • According to former astronaut and ape captor George Taylor, however, granting apes the same rights as humans poses unique risks.
  • Recalling the first words he ever spoke to an ape, Taylor said, "Take your stinking paws off me, you damned dirty ape!"

    Dr. Zaius: "To suggest that we can learn anything about
    the simian nature from a study of man is sheer nonsense."

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