The FOMC meets on the last day of the month and quarter. Based upon the analogs below, this shifts the bias for Thursday's open and close to the bulls. The below queries were for SP futures.
- SP meets on last day of month: SP opened higher 7 of 10 and closed higher 8 of 10. Three of those meetings occurred on the final day of June and all three opened higher and closed higher.
- SP on June FOMC meeting: SP opened higher 5 of 7 and closed higher 5 of 7.
This Thursday will also mark the one year anniversary of the FOMC rate hikes. In June 2004, the FOMC raised rates 25bps to 1.25% and has steadily raised the target rate at each meeting. For those interested, I've listed the performance of SP and Ten Year futures on and around those dates.
- SP observation: the bias has been for a higher open and close on the day of the meeting.
- TY (ten year futures) observation: the bias has been for a higher close the day before, a lower close on the day of, and a higher close on the day after the meeting.
Past performance does not indicate future results. But we should at least be aware of the historical tendency.
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