Sense and Sensibility
Turnaround Tuesday couldn't arrive soon enough!
Desperado, why don't you come to your senses,
You've been out ridin' fences for so long now,
You're a hard one, but I know that you've got your reasons,
The things that are pleasin' you can hurt you somehow.
Good morning and welcome back to the critter shack. Boo took a knee to begin the new week as the Matador Crowd tried to start a new streak. Despite some new fright on the technical front, hope still remains for the bulls in the hunt. "I took their best shot with my back to the ropes," said Hoofy the bull of his quarter-end hopes, "the stage is now set for those willing to cope with the upside that remains on this slippery slope!" Can the bovine opine that everything's fine or is this just a stop in a meaty decline? We'll know soon enough as we ready to thrill and dig in our heels for a romp through the 'Ville!
The critters were a bit bewildered after the back-to-back crimson slack and entered the week with their right paws up and eyes wide open. Sure enough, and par for the Minxy course, the tape did very little. While there were notable subplots--the quarter-end mark was alive in Google, crude continued to ramp and the semis stood out on the sell side--the index action slithered sideways and did little to appease the immediate gratification crowd. We power up the Tuesday pup in a similar state, with viable reasons for the tape to lift and plenty of risk of a run through Red Dye.
The intuitive path of today's flickering wrath bodes well for the bounce crowd. Professor Jason Roney ran an analog on the Buzz that queried the current three day NASDAQ pattern. While his subset of seventeen is somewhat small, the Matador Crowd will gladly take a 71% upside occurrence after back-to-back 1% whacks followed by a lower close on Monday. That also fits quite nicely with the "turnaround Tuesday" mojo that we've seen all too often through the years.
The timing couldn't be better or, indeed, much needed. With the trannies sitting on '05 lows, the NDX at the bottom of an important congestion zone and the DJIA doing a buttah knife impersonation, higher prices would do wonders for the level lore crowd. There is, of course, the question of sustainability as it feels as if a lot of folks are trading with a higher basis (read: they bought into the recent rally). To be sure, if quarter-end demand doesn't arrive on cue, the specter of frustration may set off some unwanted fireworks into the Fourth.
Do I trust them? I respect them, and there's a difference. I learned through the years that opinions shouldn't get in the way of making money as the Minx has a mind of her own. Still, the compression in the marketplace, coupled with somewhat lopsided lean, is a recipe for the type of air pockets we witnessed last week. The bulls have been bailed out by Shallow Hal and his dip shtick and he may indeed continue to dance. I'm simply reiterating that the risk to the tape vs. the perceived risk (read: psychology) is perhaps the greatest disconnect currently in play.
Some quick housekeeping items:
The first few weeks of July will have me on the road as I spread the critter vibe. I'll be heading to San Fran on Friday for a weekend with the Macke's and some Bay Area mind melds. On Tuesday July 5th, starting at 4:00 PM, we'll be hosting a San Fran Minyanfest and encourage folks to swing by for an old fashioned gaggle. Wednesday will feature a host of meetings in LA followed by some face time with the General Fari Hamzei. From there, I'll be heading to Ojai to map out logistics for the upcoming Minyans in the Mountains retreat August 18-21. If you haven't peeked at our Sundance of Finance, please put it on your radar and give it a good look. It's going to be special.
After a quick NYC pit stop to feed the cats (is ten days too long for dry food?), Team Minyan will be heading to the windy city for the Chicago Trader's Expo on Tuesday night. We've got a strong crew of Midwest Minyans and we'd love to put some faces to those names. Dr. J will be there, as will Fari, Minyan Mark Kellner, President Fish and a number of trusted traders. That jaunt will carry us into the following weekend and--just like that--through half of July. Man, time really does fly when you're on the run!
Just sharing and caring as the tomorrow's turn to yesterdays. Thanks kindly for spending your journey with us and I'll see you on the Buzz.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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