Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.
Today's AM note suggested that we cannot yet be confident that a top in the NDX had been registered. This AM's move up seems to be correctively (i.e. overlapping) moving toward that 1514 target we have been eyeing. Though this index could fail at anytime, we think one more down-up sequence that carries the NDX to 1510-1515 area could provide the top that we have been looking for and the start of a larger correction toward lower support levels. Only a move above 1522 would reset the technical indicators and cause us to immedaitely abandon that call. Otherwise, a move below 1485 (the 6/24 low) would be a strong indication that a larger correction was underway that should take the NDX to below 1449 at a minimum and more likely to 1426-1442 area before meaningful support is seen (not advice). What happens at that 1420-1440 level holds the key to the bearish or bullish intermediate term trend: if those levels do not hold the NDX on any correction, a much larger and more damaging correction will be underway, confirming the bearish interpretation of the technical indicators. If those levels do hold, that would imply a bullish intermediate term trend with implications to new annual highs in the NDX.
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