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Random Thoughts


If I told you in January 2002, when crude was $18/brl that Texas Tea would sprint to $72/brl in four years, where would you have "guessed" the S&P would be?

  • I'm all for jury duty but if they're gonna allow personal computers while the paint dries, they should at least offer Wi-Fi for so I can read the Buzz! I'm having some serious critter D.T's!

  • Be that as it may, I really don't mind honoring my civic responsibilities. No, really!

  • I returned to my turret last night once the ticks stopped flickering and found a snapshot of a lazy grind higher. The homies, small caps, metals and energy all out-performed the broader averages which, as it stands, remain nestled under "collective resistance" while working off the oversold condition.

  • And I suppose it's not a shocker that the screens were green given the 40 bip drippage in the dollar. I delved into this dynamic in Denver, offering that it's a big picture toggle that has seemingly seeped into the daily dance. It'll work until it doesn't but it's worked a lot of late.

  • It could be worse, I suppose. I could be depressed and hot. (Now pass that Snickers!)

  • The obvious focus (foci?) for the rest of the week is two-fold. We've got the upcoming FOMC (bring your thesaurus) and the frenzy that is quarter-end.

  • Speaking of catalysts and trading style, vols have now retraced more than 50% of the June upside explosion. As I believe that volatilities will trend higher, I wanna use them to help define my risk when I proactively position anew.

  • I hope Henrietta behaves lest she gets choked!

  • There are alotta unhappy hedge fund campers out there and war stories will likely edge into mainstream circles as the ink dries on the Q2 spew. The question, from a trading standpoint, is two-fold: Structural (contagion vs. containment) and psychological (which, if any, sectors are the most likely mark-up candidates).

  • If you haven't read Jeff "Will you be at MIM3? You betcha!" Saut's weekly missive, please print it out and give it a noodle. He truly is as good as it gets.

  • For those dabblin' in Goldcorp (as I am, albeit smaller than I was as a function of my intermittent eyes), please "see" $28.50ish as its former support and near-term resistance.

  • Keeping with dem tradin' eyes, keep a few peeled towards JP Morgan $42ish as it's the right shoulder of the recent dandruff.

  • Who's in your circle of trust?

  • If I told you in January 2002, when crude was $18/brl that Texas Tea would sprint to $72/brl in four years, where would you have "guessed" the S&P would be? Yeah, me too. Then why, pray tell, have equities hung so tough? Simple--think of our "dollar devaluation vs. asset class deflation" discussion. Energy. Metals. Emerging Markets. Wheat. Corn. Chuga. Stocks. It sorta makes sense in the context of a greenback that is down 28% since then.

  • And yes, it was 30%. The dollar has rallied a deuce in the last few months, which explains a lot if we circle our eyes back to the price action since May 10th.

  • While the damage has been shell shocking in a slew of global markets and stateside sectors, keep in mind that the S&P still hasn't corrected 10%. Is that a reason to pile into the short side? Nosiree, Bob. But it most certainly offers cause for pause if you're layered or leveraged long.

  • Have I mentioned how insane the 4Eagle and Lazy J Ranch are? From clay shooting to horseback riding to S'more chewing to campfires to bright stars to mountain air to mingles to Minyans for miles of smiles. This is Minyans in the Mountains and, with six weeks (and a handful of rooms) left, we're officially in countdown mode! Minyans are migrating from as far away as Europe, Australia and South America to attend this bender. We aim to make it the most mindful retreat they've ever seen!

  • I'm off to court house. I sincerely hope you all have a fine session and I hope to be back in the Minyan sack soon. May peace be with you.

  • R.P.
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position in gg, jpm, metals, energy
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