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Random Thoughts


Welcome Herb!

  • Does anyone really "jump" in the shower? Weren't we taught otherwise?

  • Hoofy continues to hang onto S&P 1192 and NDX 1500 with hopes that Snapper will soon offer relief. I've been keying on the internals for clues and while they're well off their worst levels, they're still not giving the upside wink.

  • Vibes from Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities:

    • The past two session correction in the equity market has been in part driven by fear that Oil moves above $60. While that has become reality this morning, we wanted to look at what has happened during the current bull market in Oil prices when it becomes this overbought on the weekly chart using a common 14-week stochastic oscillator. We found that even if you are bullish on energy, it makes sense to wait for a correction before buying more when oil becomes this overbought, as price tends to weaken - at times dramatically so.

    • We have thus far been wrong in our view that oil prices have peaked, but our bullish equity market thesis has not been surrounding oil price weakness. It has been driven by solid economic and disposable income growth, low core inflation, strong earnings and attractive valuations - all of which remain in place.

    • We expect signs of economic slowdown over coming weeks - which suggests a possible end to rising Fed rate cycle - to trump higher energy prices in importance toward markets, especially if oil begins to weaken.

  • Tip Top?

  • Front month crude futes start the week on the other side of $60 and while we KNOW that there is no discernable correlation between crude and equities, it's all the rage in trading circles right now.

  • Kelly Leak is tearing it up!

  • Rabbit and his mom cannot be happy about this.

  • "The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are in better technical shape than the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While all three indexes are still joined by upward sloping 200-day moving averages, last week's action pushed the DJIA below the 200-day and it now sits at its lowest level since May 17th, 2005. Yet, the DJIA is not oversold. With an upward sloping 200-day moving average we'll give the DJIA the benefit of the doubt here, but we're not going to be surprised to see it test the April '05 lows in the 10,000 area." -- John "if it ain't" Roque (don't fix it) of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • Edy's Grand Ice Cream created the flavor Rocky Road after the stock market crash of October 1929. The company hoped the flavor's whimsical name would give people something to smile about

  • While I "get" that Europe and Asia have issues of their own--and currency trading is a relative game--I think the recent dollar jig offers a good window to partially diversify holdings away from the greenback.

  • "As we said last week in our, "I Don't Understand," or "Je ne comprends pas" strategy report, when we don't understand what is happening it has historically been a good idea to protect your portfolios. This is not a random statement, but rather a historical fact! The best analogy we can think of comes from a pamphlet we read as a kid in the "Bear Book" upon entering Grand Teton National Park. To wit, "When you are approached by a bear, try to look big. Be forceful, but NOT aggressive. Keep your pack on, wave your arms, and talk loudly. Back away slowly, but DO NOT RUN! If a bear attacks you, assume the fetal position and protect your vital organs." We continue to invest accordingly..." -- Jeff "I'll see you in Ojai!" Saut of Raymond James.

  • It's too bad that Metro Minyan David Fine won't be joining us in Ojai.

  • My trusty stochastics aren't at actionable extremes but the NDX is much closer to a "buy signal" than their old school counterparts.

  • Welcome Professor Herb Greenberg! The MarketWatch maven joined the 'Ville today and is offering his fine insights over on the Buzz & Banter. If you wanna read his vibes all day, every day, please check out his Reality Check column. It's pretty snazzy!

  • General Electric (GE)--fresh off its recent breakdown--remains a key tell for the tape.

  • T-Minus 8 days until the famed San Fran Minyanfest. Macke, Daisy and I will be gagglin' at Perrys' at 6pm on Tuesday, July5th.

  • The tombstone of Mel Blanc - the famed voice of cartoon characters Bugs Bunny, Sylvester the Cat, Tweety Bird, and Porky Pig - reads "That's all folks."

  • Note the homies as they edge back above the aforementioned acne level (HGX 520).

  • "Market forces, not political majorities, will compel societies to reconfigure themselves in ways that public opinion will neither comprehend nor welcome."

  • Quarter-end will be interesting. Hedge fund redemptions thereafter will be more interesting.

  • While General Motors (GM) has seemingly shaken off the effects of the debt downgrade, rest assured that there are alotta hedge funds that haven't been as fortunate. And, again, I think that we'll look back on the initial reaction as one of the nostiest head-fakes in recent memory.

  • But is it s-a-a-a-a-a-a-f-e?

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