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Bum and Bummer


May peace be with you!


"I'm talking about a place where the beer flows like wine, where the women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talkin' about Aspen!"

--Lloyd Christmas, Dumb and Dumber

The quiet riot has suddenly picked up in pace as the macro funds waxed the futures en masse. That slippage pushed the indices through yesterday's lows and, once that happened, the "marginal" longs hit the eject button. Next up on the technical front is the "neckline" from our much discussed head and shoulder patterns. Again, those levels reside around S&P 972 and NDX 1188ish. These shorter term bearish patterns (if 'triggered') are not to be confused with THE trendlines from the March lows. In that regard, my chart work shows that the S's have nudged through (support) while the NDX and BKX are (barely) holding on.

Today's "bid vacuum" illustrates the dangers associated with this tape. While the Minxy musical chairs kept the bulls on the dance floor, the conditional downside elements lurked in the background. That's not to say it's all over right here, right now (there's a lot of trading left in this session), but it serves as a reminder that Boo's crew, while a shadow of their former self, warrant respect in their own right.

In my absence next week, please remember that emotional markets tend to act irrationally at times. We've been using the technical metric as a backdrop and while that still applies, psychology and the structural influences will both help shape the tape. Once the quarter passes, it'll likely take a few days for the manicured managers to reposition their risk. That, coupled with the illiquidity of the holiday week, will add noise to an environment that's already pretty loud.

I'm gonna sign off and tie up my own loose ends so lemme take this time to wish you all a healthy, happy and safe holiday week. These last six months have been a journey through the good, bad and fugly and it hasn't always been the easiest of roads. I've learned a lot, shared my gains and pains and, hopefully, helped further Minyanville's vision of education and philanthropy. I truly believe that we're building something extremely special here and without you, none of it would be possible. For that, you have my sincere gratitude for joining us on our journey.

Have a peaceful week and, as always, fare ye well.

In a bed, in a bed
By the waterside I will lay my head
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

(Grateful Dead)
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