By Todd Harrison Jun 26, 2003 12:40 pm
What the heck are you struttin' for Hoofs? The day ain't over yet!
A dreamer of pictures I run in the night
You see us together
Chasing the moonlight
My cinnamon girl
Alright, fess up -- who slipped Snapper the espresso? He's running around Minyanville like Magda and scoopin' stocks left and right! Indeed, when our all-important levels held the second test, the Minx just shrugged and the pressers got hugged. Now, as we're approaching the pre-Elmer levels from yesterday, anxious players are once again staring at the old laughing lady.
There are a handful of ways to see the market and, depending on your stylistic approach, each view is subjective. While the jazzy short-term types focused on the tick-by-tick action (and played with tight stops around the trendline/shoulders), the intermediate-term players eyed the broader uptrend that's still in place. When we failed to fail, the next nuance was a squeeze higher to alleviate (eliminate) the fresh short money. Talk about saucy!
Through objective eyes, the trend is in place (thus far) and that's a constructive development (as long as it holds). Despite this morning's sprint, however, we're not out of the technical woods. If the S's can take out S&P 1000 and the N's can power through NDX 1230, the head & shoulder patterns would offer no more tears. Until then, right hands will trade at a premium in the city of critters.
Taking a closer look at the action, there are crosscurrents galore. Bonds are taking a beat down, the dollar is firming, gold continues to meander lower, the GSEs stick out like a sore thumb (to the downside), the energy patch is a tug-of-war (OSX battling at the 92 level), the semis are trying to nudge through SOX 360, breadth is kickin', the trannies continue to fly, vols are getting hit and Fokker -- don't get me started on Fokker! I feel like Froedrick Frankenstein when he created the monster. It... could... work!
So, what now? The simple truth is this: With quarter-end approaching and our trading metrics converging, this bad boy can snap either way. Ironically, the chances of a downside move have increased with today's rally, as the short base is shrinking and bulls have relaxed. We must balance those inputs vs. the mo' mo' show that's been good to go since the March low. How do you play it? Anyway you want as long as you are disciplined and defined.
Let's end this post with a little Minyan trivia. At age 15, Jerry Garcia swapped the instrument he received for his birthday for an electric guitar. What was the instrument? The first correct answer sent to firstname.lastname@example.org wins a free Minyanville tee to sport this summer. Good luck!
I hope this finds you well.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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